Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[Seadood228]

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That's gotta be a mistake.

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Nah I think this is the perfect image for hero. I know I wouldn't want to get involved with him after showing a hand like that. Say you're in the BB with AJs and he raises from LP.. How are you going to feel about playing a pot with this guy? Who is going to have the balls to reraise him knowing he just risked his whole stack with J9s?

For the record I think the J9s move is +EV and ZJs numbers are pretty accurate. To those who have said that people are overestimating hero's FE, I have to disagree. This is a big tournament and players are more likely to lay down that early even if/when they smell a rat.

I'm a little worried about the SB accidental reraise with all those players in, but I wasn't there so it's difficult to comment on a read.

[ZeeJustin]

My fold equity in this hand doesn't have to be that high for me to make this play. The people I have talked to seem to both underestimate the amount I gain when I win the pot uncontested, and seem to vastly underestimate my chances of winning when called.

[KramerTM]

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My fold equity in this hand doesn't have to be that high for this play to make. The people I have talked to seem to both underestimate the amount I gain when I win the pot uncontested, and seem to vastly underestimate my chances of winning when called.

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I think you vastly overestimate your chances of winning PF.

[sirio11]

Wow, indeed a very interesting hand.

Before I can comment, you said

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He is the most aggressive player at the table,

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He rarely calls anything on any street.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?

And about:

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Here are hands I can call the initial raise with and push expecting to have the best hand: Pairs QQ-99, AK, AQo, AKs, AQs and AJs

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Do you think MP3 would think that?

[ZeeJustin]

Very good questions Sirio.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?


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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.

As for your second question, I don't think it's possible for him to call without the chance of me having TT or AQo crossing his mind. He's not an idiot. He may think JJ and QQ are out of the question, but probably not.

[SossMan]

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Very good questions Sirio.

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What do you think then his initial call to the UTG+2 raise mean?


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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.

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and after his raise, what hands do you eliminate from that range?

Do you agree w/ my 55-60% total FE guesstimate? (including the SB and MP1)

[Che]

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and after his raise, what hands do you eliminate from that range?

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Why would you eliminate any hands from the original range? An aggressive player saw weakness (oops raise + call from weak player who is oop vs. the agg) and raised. Doesn't really tell you anything, does it?

[sirio11]

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After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands.


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Ok, but now after he raises to 2150, do you think he's still that weak? I mean, MP1 called 625, and you said he's not a good player, so, MP3 knows that most probably, MP1 will call this raise, so, looks like he wants to play with MP1; How does this fact affect MP3 range?

[dasein]

My problem with this hand is that you consider 35 to be middle aged and 45 to be old.

[Analyst]

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My problem with this hand is that you consider 35 to be middle aged and 45 to be old.

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Indeed. Ah, to be 18 again . . .