Value betting bottom pair OOP...

Jaran · #1 09-07-2005, 12:13 AM

Villian in this hand was short stacked, weak, and passive (pretty much describes the entire table). When the 2nd T fell on the turn and it was HU, I decided I really hated c/c'ing here. Who likes it, who hates it?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.50. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero completes, UTG (poster) checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets...

-Jaran

scotty34 · #2 09-07-2005, 12:24 AM

I like betting here, but not for the reasons you describe.

#3 09-07-2005, 12:27 AM

I also like betting here. If you can get an eight to fold, thats awesome. If he also holds a five, the tens pairing counterfeits your kicker, and possibly his as well. (The river can also counterfeit his kicker.) If he has a ten, and raises you, you have odds to draw for your flush (5:1).

Jaran · #4 09-07-2005, 12:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like betting here, but not for the reasons you describe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't put down my entire thought process on the turn bet. I was hoping to get some discussion going on it. Would you care to elaborate?

-Jaran

scotty34 · #5 09-07-2005, 01:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like betting here, but not for the reasons you describe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't put down my entire thought process on the turn bet. I was hoping to get some discussion going on it. Would you care to elaborate?

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a chance you are ahead, you have ~10 outs if you are behind. Seems like a pretty standard semi-bluff yielding positive expectation. I'm not sure of the exact EV numbers here (as I mentioned in another thread, I took the summer off poker, so I'm a little rusty) but my natural instinct is to assume this is +EV when thinking about the chance of improving, being ahead already, and folding out your opponents. Anyone care to give the calculation a shot?

VoraciousReader · #6 09-07-2005, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand was short stacked, weak, and passive (pretty much describes the entire table). When the 2nd T fell on the turn and it was HU, I decided I really hated c/c'ing here. Who likes it, who hates it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm. You're HU against a weak player who's low on cash with a great draw and a pair. You probably have FE from betting the flop, representing a 10 that just made 3 of a kind. Er...(holds breath)...I think I like it. Especially since you are calling a bet anyway, and it's unlikely you have to worry about being raised here.

(I take it you have a previous read on MP3 since he just sat down?)

Jaran · #7 09-07-2005, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
(I take it you have a previous read on MP3 since he just sat down?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuppers. He be bad (and I don't mean good).

-Jaran

VoraciousReader · #8 09-07-2005, 02:10 AM

Bad like "call, call, call" or bad like "capable of folding but wouldn't raise if you gave him the yeast and told him to start kneading"?

Jaran · #9 09-07-2005, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bad like "call, call, call" or bad like "capable of folding but wouldn't raise if you gave him the yeast and told him to start kneading"?

[/ QUOTE ]

The latter. (nh)

-Jaran

Wetdog · #10 09-07-2005, 02:26 AM

Lucksack that you river the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

*Crystal ball gazing* I see an 8 in your future. Beware the 8. Someone shows you an 8. It is a despondent person who has little money left, little hope, little strength, little self esteem. Do not play against this hand on this Thursday.

*Ahem*, check the river. Weak I know. I bet it's checked behind. Meet 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].