Questionable slow play?

[DeeJ]

Now I'm not usually one for the slowplay with only TPTK, but here what do the panel think.. Players here in the hand are reasonable but not brilliant.

10/20 Party, full table 10 players

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG.

Preflop: I raise, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 cold calls, lots of folds, SB calls 1.5, BB folds.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 SB)
check,check,check

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
check,check,check

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
check, I bet, UTG+2 calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 5.5 BB

My reasons for the slowplay. Betting out with the Qxx flop is unlikely to get a caller unless someone else has a Queen. (15% chance?) and will only get raised by a hand which I'm behind (twopair or trips, 5%?). The chance of someone holding 2 hearts is small (5%, with 20% chance of hitting = 1% real risk of losing, 5% of missing bets?). Therefore with a 75% chance of taking the pot then and there, I decided to try to get someone to hit a lesser hand, hopefully with an Ace, or some other pair (Jack,Ten). Obviously risky as I don't like Kings or the board pairing. By waiting until the river I am more likely to get a call (or two) as people will not put me on AQ.

Does this stack up? Or is it rather too risky giving two free cards with only TPTK?

[vmacosta]

Given the action and results, your slowplay worked out. But in my experience (which is mostly not online), if UTG+2 is reasonable and he cold-called PF then he's going to at least call your flop bet (especially on a QXX board since it looks like it misses a PFR a lot) a lot of the time and SB may well call too. People like to try to outplay the PF raiser. Given that the flop checked through, the turn c/r is expert and you must know your opponent extremely well for this to be +ev.

[Adjutor]

I'm betting the flop. So many people autobet after a raise that they're not necessarily going to give you credit for anything here.

It might have worked this time, but I think in the long run you're giving up too much by letting people draw to better hands and only getting one more bet out of the pot.

I don't mind the folds if it means I take down 3.5BB now more frequently than i take down 5.5BB after giving my opponents two free cards.

You're not going to get folds every time either, and if you're going to take it down on the river why not take down a bigger pot.

I think it's too dangerous.

[stigmata]

Preflop raising, then checking a flop like that looks mighty suspicous, even to some bad players.

A hand like TT could easily cold-call here and then try to play back at you on a flop like this. By checking you both A) arouse their suspicoun and B) allow them to take a cheap route to showdown or suck out.

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the flop.

...

I think it's too dangerous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is my usual assessment. I bet the flop up to 95% of the time with TPTK. Or a checkraise if I'm up against aggressive players from early position. Here the table is quite passive (no stats sorry) and a smallish risk, but risky nonetheless.

Another side-effect is that having shown down a slow-played hand, you can get more free cards as people remember your monster hiding tendencies. Something I wasn't able to use as the opportunity didn't arise [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

When you have just top pair and you bet the flop and your opponents fold you should be very happy. You shouldnt be worrying about how many extra bets you couldve garnered if you played it a different way. Also on a Queen high flop, many people will call you down with any pair hoping you have AK,AJ,AT, so you lose out on all that action. And the flush draw is yet another reason to bet your hand since thats another person who will play with you. And one more point, since most preflop raisers will bet this flop vs 2 opponents every single time no matter what they have, your check here actually shows alot more strength than betting here, many people would put you on QQ in that spot. So if you want to show weakness and get alot of any pair calls, you should bet this flop and make some money

[DeeJ]

Good point. I was thinking that by checking it makes it look more like I have AK/AJ/JJ rather than strength, but you may be right. As I said I also bet there 95% of the time and tried the change-up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[mrkilla]

You think about betting the turn or were you trying to C/R ? This is one those plays were the stats might be helpful [IE Passive/Agro etc] I like the change up, but I think I prefer a turn bet and probably take it there. No need to let these guys keep drawing to the river.
Also do you bet a scare card if it comes on the river?

[ QUOTE ]
Good point. I was thinking that by checking it makes it look more like I have AK/AJ/JJ rather than strength, but you may be right. As I said I also bet there 95% of the time and tried the change-up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Believe Me, I know this is not your typical line. And theres nothing wrong with varying your play once in a while especially in real life. I think a good time to make the play that you made is if you are in the pot with a habitual bluffer who loves to bet when checked too and is not much of a thinking player(ie he wont fear a monster since you checked the flop)

[DeeJ]

If someone bet the turn, I checkraise because I think I'm ahead.

If it gets checked through then it looks more like everyone hasn't got a Queen and I have more chance of a call on the river. So I didn't really mind too much either way.

I didn't know much about these guys but had a King come on the river and it gets bet by SB I likely fold as he should have to fear AK from me or the other guy. A flush or straight card I will call if bet, but not if it's raised behind me.