Help w/Late gameplay in 22's

[viennagreen]

i don't know if we are operating with the same working definition of "bad beat"

i use "bad beat" to describe when i get my money in with the best hand, and lose....

there are many times when i think that i probably have the best hand, but i fold anyway... but i never think of it as trying to "avoid a bad beat"--- it's usually due to factors like relative chip stack sizes and such...

when your chip stack and chip position is such that you must steal blinds in order to survive/make-the-money, any strategy which includes "avoiding bad beats" is ridiculous, in my opinion it is just another way of saying "playing scared"...

so--- you might be right--- i might not understand what you mean by "avoiding bad beats"... please explain this concept.

[bluef0x]

I agree... the term "avoiding bad beats" sounds like youre afraid of getting all your money in as a 60/40 favorite. Thats a huge leak and you will not be making as much money as you can over the long term... hell i just got knocked outta 2 sng's as a huge favorite going into both hands (stupid 4 of a suit on board ) [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ... but thats just poker.

[willbb99]

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deep stack poker is much different from the specialized poker we play in SNGs

AND-- bad beats always happen just as often as they should...

[/ QUOTE ] But do you not understand the concept of avoiding a bad beat. I dont' think any of you do. It is possible..you know..to avoid a bad beat. And there are...you know....ways to lay down a good hand. When is the last time any of you made a fold you were proud of?

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At the 22's getting fancy is one of the things that can kill you. There are a lot of people here that are making very good livings playing "like robots" -- and it doesn't matter that they play like robots. Here are the reasons why:

1) Playing SnG's for a living is a matter of vast quantity. You follow ICM because it's far more precise than your instincts or what you think you've learned about a specific player over the course of 50 hands. You follow ICM because it's what will make the most consistent money over the LONG HAUL. Keep making your "good folds" that go against the math -- after 100,000 tournaments you'll have gone broke ten times over (or at the very least failed to make nearly as much money as you could have).

2) The reason guys like Hellmuth make the "big laydowns" is because they a) aren't playing 22 SnG's at Party Poker and b) are playing against much tougher, craftier opponents and c) are playing deep stack multi-table tourneys. You sound very much like you're generating your playing strategy from Norman Chad broadcasts.

3) Another reason you MIGHT make weird plays on the WPT is because players will notice if you play the same way and will exploit your tendencies. That is simply not the case for 99% of people playing 22's on Party. The value laying something like this down might have is simply not there.

You can continue to think what you like, obviously...but this is a clear push in this situation. There are times when there's more than one right answer and healthy debate is called for (not that you've given any game-specific reasons why you think this is a fold). There are other times where the answer is quite clear. If you can recognize the clear times and then act accordingly, you can do quite well. Best of luck.

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I agree completely. 2callzU I don't understand why you are so high and mighty in every single thread that you post in. If you think that you are so much better than everyone in this forum then leave. You're not doing anyone any favors by posting things without explanation and then criticizing others for questioning you.

[BadMongo]

Hahaha! I really hope you are just trolling...

In case you aren't, let me say this. There are times when ICM does not provide a satisfactory model to base your decisions on 100%.

THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE TIMES.

This is simply a math question. There is only ONE correct play in the situation descibed by the OP if one wishes to maximize $EV. That play is to push. It doesn't matter what your 'instincs' tell you or if you want to 'avoid bad beats'. Hell it doesn't even matter what range of calling hands the SB an BB have here, its still +EV. Once you crunch the numbers, you know what play to make, and you make that play 100% of the time in this specific scenario. There is no room to 'play poker' here, and you don't like this fact then don't play party poker STTs.