Value betting Ahigh

[bozlax]

I think you have to raise this flop, especially since you're first to act after the bettor.

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Not pushing an equity edge.

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You're 2-1 to make the nut flush by the river with 4 (5?) Villans...how do you not have an equity edge? Somebody holding a ten has you beat at the moment, by why are we believing that anybody has a ten?

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Won't clean up outs. Someone with A5 doens't have us reverse dominated since the board pair would counterfeit their 2 pair if an ace falls. I'm not giving myself any outs for pairing our 6.

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Who wants to clean up outs? You're playing for the flush, here, you want JTo staying in with you.

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Pot is smallish and raising might well take the pot right there with this field, or if not, you may get it when you're checked to on the turn and you bet.

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fyp

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If CO is a true maniac, we probably won't buy the button, might not get a free card, etc.

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If he's a true maniac, get him HU and beat him like a tied-up dog.

[bozlax]

See response to atnels, above. Basically, tho, the only person you have any belief would stay in to 2 cold on this board is your maniac and somebody holding a ten, and you've got the outs to take a shot at pushing either of them off their hand.

[atnels]

On the flop, there has been one bettor, directly to your right. If CO is a donk, you can anticipate he'll call, but beyond that how can you assume you'll get any more callers? How is that pushing an equity edge? Even with 2, you're ~ even money.

[Jaran]

I don't agree that I want to try and push anyone off a hand. The value of my hand currently is the nutflush draw. I want to encourage as many people to stay in with me as possible. Also, A bet on the turn is just spewing IMO. I can see it if I had raised the flop and gotten it HU, though. But I'm not raising the flop here except for a free card play. I don't see either of the ck'ers calling two cold, but they might call one.

-Jaran

[bozlax]

If I don't get any callers don't I win the pot? If I get 2 callers and it's checked to me on the turn, what are they going to do when I bet out?

[atnels]

But the pot is freaking 7 SB at this point. Fine, you MIGHT fold everyone and take the pot right there. You MIGHT take control of the hand and get checked to on the turn. You MIGHT get a bunch of calls, pushing an equity edge, which is great. You might fold out everyone and get reraised by MP. Not so great. Whatever, I'm not trying to argue the likelyhood of any of these things. My point is just that the pot is small so I want a good, solid reason to be aggressive. Others may disagree, but I just don't think there are clear ones here.

[SCfuji]

if by idiot you mean "calls down with 8 high regularly" i like the bet

[atnels]

1. My bad, I should have said 'if just MP calls.'

2. I take your point, but if CO is a maniac, do you want to get into a raising war in a smallish pot with A high on the turn? I realize CO didn't act like a maniac in this hand, but that was the read provided. I'm just throwing this scenario out there because it would be something I would consider before betting the turn UI w/ CO still in the hand and yet to act.

[Jaran]

Pretty much [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-Jaran

[bozlax]

I just went through a whole semi-bluffing argument yesterday (in which I was taking your position, btw), and am just reading the semi-bluffing section in TOP, so I'll try to get this right, but basically:

By showing strength on this flop, with a hand that's not currently likely to be best, but has the odds to improve to the best, and then coming strong to a show of weakness on the turn, you're putting pressure on the Villans.

You're probably not going to lose your maniac, regardless, but he's just dead money, anyway. MP may, in fact, be bluffing the scary board, hizownself.