LAG combat (cold donking included)

DeeJ · #1 04-12-2005, 05:53 AM

My unfavorite hand, 55. Until recently it was my worst performer. No more, I tightened it right up. Or so I thought. I was reading the peter_rus post about small pairs being slightly profitable just as this hand came along ...

As per the subject line, Villain (UTG) is new to me but appears pretty loose. Afterwards, PT analysis put him on 35/14. Cutoff is a reasonable player who also probably doesn't respect the UTG raise. It's the flop call I'm interested in; I wanted to keep BB in (which I didn't) and get UTG to lead the [hopefully non-deuce] turn, (which he did). And the preflop too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Paradise Poker 20/40 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, CO folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Michael Emery · #2 04-12-2005, 06:45 AM

I like how it played out for you Dee. I'm just not so sure that I can agree with your preflop Button cold-call. I guess its much closer if you knew for a fact that one or both of the blinds were sure to call preflop increasing your implied odds. Without that knowledge and what looks to be a fairly shorthanded pot unless they tag along, I'm folding preflop and waiting for a better scenario with more players to pay me off if I flop my set. I didnt read Peters post but cold calling here seems -EV. I do like how it turned out for you though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

helpmeout · #3 04-12-2005, 07:36 AM

I dont like much of this.

Cold calling with 55 eww you need at least another caller here.

I raise this flop I'm not letting any Ace,2,6 or 7 get to see the turn cheap and beat me with their gutshot.

elindauer · #4 04-12-2005, 08:39 AM

Play the flop fast. Aces and overpairs will likely give you plenty of action. Terrible spot to slowplay.

Your preflop call is pretty weak. You need to get about 10 big bets out when you flop a set to justify it, but you only got 8. True, sometimes you'll get more. But other times, you'll win without a showdown and get less. You need more than 7.5 to 1 to compensate for the times you flop a set and lose.

Good luck.
Eric

BigSkiRace · #5 04-12-2005, 10:03 AM

So Many straight draw possibilits, why not hammer the flop, check-raise the turn? Or is that to ovbious

Turning Stone Pro · #6 04-12-2005, 10:10 AM

Would one more preflop cold caller in front of the hero make it mathematically sound? When I have small pairs up to 88 in LP and there are a couple cold callers after a EP raiser, I can't help but call. I'm pretty sure its profitable, but not positive.

Thoughts?

TSP

stoxtrader · #7 04-12-2005, 10:38 AM

the overcoldcall is close. I don't mind it, but it's close. you are getting 5.5:2 immediately, with the possibility of SB and BB coming along, or 3 betting.

As it stands currently, you need to avg a profit of an ADDITIONAL 9.5SB when you hit your set for this to be breakeven, or stated differently, the overall pot needs to average 10BB overall (it is currently just under 3BB) to account approximately for the times you hit your set and lose.

DeeJ · #8 04-12-2005, 12:05 PM

That's assuming I can't win the pot with a pair of fives, which sometimes I can. Scary flops which get checked round can sometimes be taken down 3 or 4-handed.

In general you're right, you only hit the set 12% of the time.

Here's some assumptions - I never win with unimproved 55, and I never lose with the set. Clearly this is a simplification...but

Lose : 1BB * 0.88 no-set EV = -0.88 BB
To Break Even on Winning = 0.88BB which means
0.12 * (BBs required) = 0.88

BBs required = 7.33BB which with an average of *say* 3.33BB in the pot already means I need to win around 4 BB more. I guess that's why I wanted/needed to keep BB in (but didn't work all this out at the table).... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

DeeJ · #9 04-12-2005, 12:08 PM

Don't forget the opening raiser is loose/aggressive preflop, and we're only 7-handed.

I would agree with you if his raising standards were higher - and I nearly folded here, too - but given he could have anything with a nice picture card, or suited, I was persuaded to hit the call button.

DeeJ · #10 04-12-2005, 12:23 PM

10 BB? I don't think it's as much as that - see other post.

I am far ahead on the flop. There is little chance of anyone catching up. It's unlikely there is more than a single gutshot out there. Even if the gutshot turns is I will likely have odds to see the river. By putting only 1 SB in the pot I give good odds for BB to call the flop and catch a second best hand. With the relatively scary flop I can't see anyone betting into me on a blank (or even non-blank) turn if I raise the flop, and they might only call even if they hit.

I can't see any overpairs preflop (unless the LAG got lucky). So I'm not really slow-playing, I'm inducing a bluff from the LAG and hoping someone else hit the turn as well.

EDIT: This is the thread I was reading about cold calling preflop with small pairs