When Ed Miller met Peter_Rus

[bernie]

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Question: Is it, or is it not +EV to receive a free turn card with a flush draw?


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Bets on the flop for flush draw alone: With blinders on, if there are 3 opponents in, it is no worse than neutral. With 2 it's close to even money for the flush draw alone granted no one else has a flush card or a bigger flush draw.

A free card on a draw to win is never really -EV, is it? So the EV part is the semi bluff along with possible value of bets going in on that betting round for your draw. Say your against a bunch of glue fingers. The semibluff is gone, but the value may still be there to bet it. Note: We are talking about smaller flush draws here, usually with an overcard or 2 so it's likely we will have to catch to win.

Briefly: It then depends on the # of opponents in regard to your total odds to hit your hand counting all draws you have minus any outs that may not be available. Then the size of your flush draw/added draws for jamming it. The smaller the draw the less likely I'd jam it. This means 3+ betting/raising.

Another reason for betting is that it helps to disguise your hand a little on the flop among all the other hands you bet out with.

Many people overplay their basic draws. They tend not to take into account the opponents holdings nor the size of their draw. They just see the draw and go into jam mode. One sign of this is someone facing everyone behind them with 2 bets cold with a baby flush draw or small side of a 2 card str8 draw. There-by knocking out people you want in to pay you off/or gain value from for the bets going in on that round.

Just woke up so Im not sure I explained all that well.

b

[scrub]

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The overwhelming majority of posters on this forum will be losers making this call.

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Is this hand really that hard to play postflop?

b

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It's hard to get maximum value out of.

scrub

[bobbyi]

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With blinders on, if there are 3 opponents in, it is no worse than neutral. With 2 it's close to even money for the flush draw alone granted no one else has a flush card or a bigger flush draw.


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The sentence should end with "or a set".

[DeeJ]

Preflop most are agreeing with the call at 9:1 or thereabouts.
Flop is where we diverge; some say check-call, some say betting isn't bad, I have no real idea apart from I don't want it to get checked through. This isn't because I want to protect my hand, I have nothing, but I want to make the pot bigger for my putative flush.... and if I bet and raised the field may clear (which it did) ; another queen may make my flush hopeless, and who knows what other pairs might hit a set or single hearts hit runner runner. So I quite like the fact I'm headsup, my EV * pot value is probably increased.
Turn plays itself. River I can't let it get checked through to AA or AK or JJ who is worried about the flush or trips.