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#31
10-19-2005, 08:12 AM
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Re: minimal results
[ QUOTE ]
SB shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I show K9 top pair. CO mucks..... MHIG. no way of knowing on Pacific what he had i reckon 2 clubs like JT or something, or a badly slow-played pocket pair. I was shocked to see the chips coming my direction after the flop action, though. [/ QUOTE ] nah, gamblers like to speculate. its not at all surprising people go nuts on the flop, when its cheap to do so. now if you got caught in a raising war on the TURN and the RIVER was a king i'd suspect youd be dead. Barron 
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#33
10-19-2005, 08:24 AM
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Re: Not folding
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when the pot is big, do you what you gotta do to win the pot raise turn [/ QUOTE ] which = fold out 3rd best hand or protect your (best) hand (if you are behind and ahead respectively) to increase overall equity (on turn); increase possibility your pair outs are good (on flop) Barron
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#34
10-19-2005, 10:49 AM
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An analysis of raising vs calling the turn and conclusion
you made me do a math analysis on this you chip spewer [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I apologise in advance for the formatting. basically each 2 (or 3 including a zero for fold) represent raise/call/fold and losing is first set and winning is second line. Conclusions at bottom. am behind to made straight 20% lose 3 lose 2 lose -2.43 -1.62 0 win 3.23 2.66 0 raise call fold am behind to two pair/set 50% -2.49 -1.66 0 2.89 2.66 0 raise call fold am ahead but against oesd 10% lose -0.459 -0.34 0 win 12.035 10.375 0 am ahead but vs a better flush 5% lose -0.95 -0.57 win 11.745 9.72 am ahead of hands drawing @/near dead inc lower flush 5% lose 0 0 0 win 14.5 12.5 0 am ahead of lower pair 10% lose -0.215 -0.129 win 13.775 11.4 EV of raising = +5.38335 EV of calling = +4.7511 Relevant assumptions : pot becomes about 17BB with me raising, about 14 BB with me not. I presumed that open ended straight draws fold 10% of the time to a turn raise and flush draws didn't fold at all, that lower pairs fold for 2 cold but the turn raise gets called sometimes by one other player. It's all a bit scratchy but the bottom line is that calling is better if I'm up against 2pair/a set/straight but raising is far better if I'm ahead with the pair of Kings. If these figures are anywhere near correct I have to believe I'm up against set/straight/2pair over 90% of the time for a call to be correct. And I would say only 70-75% for the action in this hand.
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