Good, Bad or Just Plain Ugly?

LuvDemNutz · #1 07-17-2005, 07:33 PM

Pokerrrom $250+20 OSOP tourney. 193 Entrants - down to 15.

Blinds are 1500/3000.

The would be SB in this hand just busted out so there is only the BB.

I have $17K - BB has $18K.

The payout for 11-15th is $676. 10th takes $879 and first is $12K.

There are several stacks left that are around my size.

Folds to me on the Button with Qh9h

I push....

Bigdaddydvo · #2 07-18-2005, 05:23 AM

From HOH II:

Your M is 17K/4.5K or around 4...which is how many orbits you have left. I like the push. Remember the 3:1 rule, that if you have a %50 chance of picking up the blinds, yet if you're called you're a 2:1 dog to win the hand, that you can push profitably.

billyjex · #3 07-18-2005, 05:24 AM

push!

bugstud · #4 07-18-2005, 05:26 AM

pretty standard. Sucks to lose, though.

WSOPstar2B · #5 07-18-2005, 05:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
From HOH II:

Your M is 17K/4.5K or around 4...which is how many orbits you have left. I like the push. Remember the 3:1 rule, that if you have a %50 chance of picking up the blinds, yet if you're called you're a 2:1 dog to win the hand, that you can push profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is where I think, actually know, I am weak. Is the 50% chance of a blind fold basically based on ur gut feeling, or more based on his propensity to fold to a raise?
And how the crap do you determine that your hand is a 2:1 dog or better? And how do you determine this when playing at a casino?
This is the aspect of poker math that I am not grasping very well. BTW, I should be getting both HOH's this week.

WSOPstar2B · #6 07-18-2005, 05:37 AM

But isn't it kinda crazy to risk 17k just for a 3k return? I understand that w/only about 5xBB the only move you have is to go all in or fold. In all likelyhood if ur called u lose. Wouldn't a fold b more prudent here since you are the button & get to see a few more hands for cheap or free? (can't remember if there is a ante or not)

Rekwob · #7 07-18-2005, 06:32 AM

why wait a few hands just to push and try to take the blinds with A6 or something? chances are you're not going to find something you'd be happy getting called with in the next orbit, and so you should go for the spot with the biggest folding equity. and here it is.

this is an easy push, your hand is pretty irrelevant, because you're challenging the other guy to have a hand, and if you're not dominated you're not in horrible shape anyway

LuvDemNutz · #8 07-18-2005, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But isn't it kinda crazy to risk 17k just for a 3k return?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part that bothers me the most.

Also, putting my whole tourney on the line with Q9s just doesn't sit well with me. I'm not in great shape with only 6BB but I'm not in terrible shape either. Especially when I have the luxury of several free deals before the blinds get to me again.

My reasoning at the time was that 11-15th paid the same so there was absolutely no difference in getting busted out now or 11th. So rather than be a survivalist now was the time to try and accumulate.

#9 07-18-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But isn't it kinda crazy to risk 17k just for a 3k return?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part that bothers me the most.

Also, putting my whole tourney on the line with Q9s just doesn't sit well with me. I'm not in great shape with only 6BB but I'm not in terrible shape either. Especially when I have the luxury of several free deals before the blinds get to me again.

My reasoning at the time was that 11-15th paid the same so there was absolutely no difference in getting busted out now or 11th. So rather than be a survivalist now was the time to try and accumulate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the point here is that you only have to push one person out of the pot, and you've got a reasonably playable hand with which to do it. The push doesn't have to succeed much for it to be the right move. It doesn't matter that Q9s isn't usually a premium hand: this time it certainly is.

If you you wait, well, you might look down and see a premium hand later in the orbit, but it's not likely. You're probably going to have to push with KJo or A-x or another mediocre hand, but you'll have to push while there are many more people still to act.

Mentioning that 11-15 pays the same makes your decision here even easier. You have to play to get above 11th. Hanging on by your fingernails till you get blinded out in 12th place doesn't matter. You need to start picking up blinds here. You're on a low M, so you ideally want to a) get your money in 1st, and b) get it in with the lowest number of players to act after you. With a) being more important than b) in my opinion. Both of these are easily satisfied here. PUSH!