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#22
06-13-2005, 01:45 PM
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Re: The continuing river saga
[ QUOTE ]
It's extremely read-dependent though. If UTG+1 is the type to call down with any pair on the flop, then I bet this river. Otherwise, I check. [/ QUOTE ] If UTG+1 is the type to call w/any pair doesn't this put you behind a fair enough times to still warrant a checkthrough. Do you really think he'll call you with 5s, 6s, or ducks esp w/all the aggression being shown? I personally find calling stations extremely difficult to read - they may call w/weak crap but their inability to bet legit hands makes this check-behind an easy one. 
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#23
06-13-2005, 01:51 PM
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Re: The importance of reads
[ QUOTE ]
After this hand, this river is a value bet against these two opponents. MP3 capped w/A3o, and UTG+1 called down w/K7 . This read pushes the river to a thin value bet, IMO, against these opponants. [/ QUOTE ] In order for this to be a value bet against both of these players on the river you would have to know that they would call your river bet with hands like A hi or something worse than a pair of Tens on that board. Does this hand really give you that information? Otherwise they are only calling the bet when they are ahead, and is then -EV for you. I don't think we get that information from this hand. All we know is that they will hang on in big pots with an overcard to the board. Just my opinion, although this may be reflecting my naturally weak-tight tendencies. I would check behind here now and still in the future without further information on these players.
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#24
06-13-2005, 01:56 PM
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Re: The importance of reads
You're right from this hand. I should have stated that after a few more hands, it became clear that at least one would have called here, if not both. This hand was the beginning of the read. Good point.
-Jaran
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#25
06-13-2005, 03:46 PM
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Re: The importance of reads
[ QUOTE ]
I posted this hand for a couple of reasons. The first is a pretty basic example of a river check behind, and the reason I asked for why you would do what you suggested. The second is to stress the value of reads. After this hand, this river is a value bet against these two opponents. MP3 capped w/A3o, and UTG+1 called down w/K7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This read pushes the river to a thin value bet, IMO, against these opponants. -Jaran [/ QUOTE ] NH don't you hate when you miss value bets, I sure do .. but there's no way to bet this without that info beforehand
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#27
06-13-2005, 03:58 PM
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Re: The continuing river saga
I think this hand boils down to the fact that you have two opponents left. I don't think they both call with worse hands very often. The probability that you have them both beat can't be higher than about 35% (If you beat them both 1/2 the time, which may be generous, you beat them both only 25% of the time). You may also be check raised. I think this makes it a hand to check behind.
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