4th and 1 - Playing it Safe

[TomCollins]

Good job Parcells. Make that 4th down and you win. Too bad you don't like to gamble! Just blind off and make the money.

[fluxrad]

pwned.

[Sponger15SB]

Somebody has gotta find that article where some mathematician did a study and found out that on like 4th and less than 3 you should always go for it, even on like your own 20 yard line cause the rewards of getting 1st downs outweight the consequences.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody has gotta find that article where some mathematician did a study and found out that on like 4th and less than 3 you should always go for it, even on like your own 20 yard line cause the rewards of getting 1st downs outweight the consequences.

[/ QUOTE ]

this would depend a lot on the teams involved. and its impossible that its a good idea to go for it on 4-2 on your 20.

[MarkL444]

didnt tressell puss out on some 4th and short late in the game to attempt some hard ass field goal?

[WLVRYN]

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody has gotta find that article where some mathematician did a study and found out that on like 4th and less than 3 you should always go for it, even on like your own 20 yard line cause the rewards of getting 1st downs outweight the consequences.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here you go.

http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/r...19_ftball.html

[FlyWf]

Tressel consistently pusses out on 4th and short, even in blatant situations. Not a great ingame coach.

And there are all sorts of situations where it's correct to go for it on 4th and 2 from your own twenty. Coaches care about margin of victory, getting embarrassed is bad for job security.

[youtalkfunny]

Math weenies in the real world.

Nowhere in that professor's article does he mention the emotional or psychological impacts of turning the ball over, which is exactly what you do when you're stopped on fourth down--it's just as if you laid down a fumble or threw a pick, they get the ball right there.

No stat plays a bigger role in deciding the outcome than turnovers. If this guy thinks that going -5 in the takeaway/giveaway column is the key to winning, he doesn't know the first thing about football.

He based his data on a sample of 3rd down plays. Don't defenses look a little more fired up on 4th down attempts? I mean, A LOT MORE fired up? You can see defenders TWITCHING on 4th down attempts, waiting for the snap. You don't see that on other downs.

Ignoring such factors renders the mathematical analysis moot.