Pocket TT - What to do on River

waynethetrain · #1 12-20-2005, 05:01 PM

No read on Villian who just posted.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 (poster) checks, 5 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

I briefly considered checking and folding this flop against 2 overcards and 2 players, but took a shot.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls.

He raised me with something and now the STR8 filled.

River: (10.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

jrz1972 · #2 12-20-2005, 05:05 PM

You have to bet this river. Villain will often have only two pair or even just top pair and will pay off every single time. If villain raises, I call hoping he's getting out of line with something like QJ or Q9.

Vote4Pedro · #3 12-20-2005, 05:06 PM

Bet/fold, he'll pay off with hands like QT or JT

#4 12-20-2005, 05:07 PM

bet/call

#5 12-20-2005, 05:10 PM

Gotta bet, no question. Just because he raised doesnt mean he has the straight though it is likely he does. If your going to 3 bet the turn you have to bet the river here.

imported_The Vibesman · #6 12-20-2005, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have to bet this river. Villain will often have only two pair or even just top pair and will pay off every single time. If villain raises, I call hoping he's getting out of line with something like QJ or Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]

@bsolute_luck · #7 12-20-2005, 05:17 PM

i can't see KQ slowplaying and K9 would cap the turn, so that leaves some hand with an 8 that that river helps. i think we'll see 2 pair here more often, so i bet/call.

mojobluesman · #8 12-20-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have to bet this river. Villain will often have only two pair or even just top pair and will pay off every single time. If villain raises, I call hoping he's getting out of line with something like QJ or Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem clear cut to me.

If I bet and he has top pair or 2 pair I gain a bet.

If I bet and he has the STR8 he raises, I call, and I lose 2 bets.

How much more likely is top pair/2 pair than a STR8 here?

joeski19 · #9 12-20-2005, 05:22 PM

Grunch

Hmm the only read is that he posted UTG+1, I would take that as being a loose player. I like the turn 3-bet as I think his raise gave him two pair. Ok, now the river sucks for us. I’d bet and call raise. You either get the pot or some nice notes, or both.

jrz1972 · #10 12-20-2005, 05:24 PM

I honestly think a straight is pretty unlikely. Like @bsolute said, there just aren't that many hands that play the flop and turn that way that now have the straight. Would AK have limped preflop? Would Q8 have raised the turn? The only hand I'm really worried about here is KQ.

Edit: Also, we should note that the math isn't quite as bad as "I win 1 bet if I'm ahead but lose 2 if I'm behind." Sometimes you will win if you get raised (which is why I advocate calling), and sometimes an 8 will fail to raise, fearing a K. I'm not saying that's good play by villain, just that it really does happen sometimes.