Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > One-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #91  
Old 12-28-2005, 07:35 PM
GtrHtr GtrHtr is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 350
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]

changed my mind, pushing is probably correct. I should know this, but Im so great that Ive never been this shortstacked before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, that's twice in two days, ur getting old or something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #92  
Old 12-28-2005, 07:36 PM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
ICM assumes that all stacks are equally playable. It doesn't give you an extra dose of equity because you have a monster stack and know you can steam roll the table and it doesn't subtract any equity when your stack is so small you have no moves left to make.

It calculates finish distribution based on relative stack sizes and your equity based on payout structure.

I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misunderstood you previously. I guess if having a BS gives you extra EV than ICM dictates (by being able to steamroll) then it should follow that the EV must come from somewhere?

nice
Reply With Quote
  #93  
Old 12-28-2005, 07:37 PM
pergesu pergesu is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).
Reply With Quote
  #94  
Old 12-28-2005, 08:07 PM
tewall tewall is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: midwest
Posts: 1,206
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

General tournament theory states that chips are worth more as the stack sizes go down, so if anything ICM should be undervaluing the true equity here, not overvaluing it.

Assuming the big stack knows how to use it to advantage, I'd assume the missing equity comes from the average stacks. This makes sense because the average stacks are the easiest to bully; big stacks have to respect other big stacks, and small stacks have pot odds to call anything, so the average ones are the ones susceptible to being stolen from, and hence the likely ones to supply the "missing" equity.
Reply With Quote
  #95  
Old 12-28-2005, 08:26 PM
ZeroPointMachine ZeroPointMachine is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 136
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: All of the following is meant to apply to 5-8 handed situations such as in OP.

I think your calculations were correct (I can't really check them now), but I think the model breaks down here.

ICM assumes that everybody is of equal skill. But what does that really mean? It means every player will make the same average EV decisions.

When your stack gets this crippled you no longer have the opportunity due to lost FE and the limited number of hands you can play before being blinded out to pick your spots.

The rest of the table is now "out playing" you because they can make better +EV decisions than you can possibly make.

Your relative skill level at the table is now very low. ICM does not account for this.

Blind equity modeling actually got me thinking about another problem with short stack calculations.

If you turn on the blind equity modeling when you are UTG you get all kinds of push hands that were folds from UTG+1 because now you are calculating your fold EV based on the potential of losing your blind some percentage of the time next hand. Your position was better UTG+1, same stack, same cards, and the $EV of pushing was actually higher. But SNGPT says not to push because we're not UTG and it is not discounting the value of our stack based on paying the blind next hand and therefore calculates the value of folding as higher. The only thing you gain is the value of seeing one more hand. This is a real value, but it is small and hard to quantify.(If sombody can help here I would appreciate it)

If you can accept blind equity modeling affecting your EVfold from UTG(EVfold=EVutg-x%BB), wouldn't the next logical extention be that:

EVfold from UTG+1=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of one unseen hand)
EVfold from UTG+2=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of two unseen hands)

This is starting to ramble and I'm hungover at work. I'll let you chew on it for a little while and then see where we are at when I get home in a little while.
Reply With Quote
  #96  
Old 12-28-2005, 09:01 PM
FlyWf FlyWf is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.
Reply With Quote
  #97  
Old 12-28-2005, 09:46 PM
GtrHtr GtrHtr is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 350
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]


What?
Reply With Quote
  #98  
Old 12-28-2005, 11:42 PM
FlyWf FlyWf is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.
Reply With Quote
  #99  
Old 12-29-2005, 01:12 AM
Snarf Snarf is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Men should act like Men
Posts: 4,434
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

I have two questions.

#1. Jukel- did you lurk at all on 2+2 before signing and flaming some seriuosly good/smart guys?
#2. Is it possible to mute/ignore someone? If so please PM me and explain.
Reply With Quote
  #100  
Old 12-29-2005, 01:48 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

With the ranges that people are putting the SB on would it be more realistic for the SB to isolate rather than flat call?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.