Odds of a major downswing?

[rvg72]

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The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.

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It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question.

My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%.

rvg

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question.

My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%.

rvg

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My comment was referring to playing over an infinite sample, which is how you should be viewing your poker results, not in self-selected samples.

[bluefeet]

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- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening)

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...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself.

[pergesu]

Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis.

I just might be the best 22er in the wrold.

And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life.

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis.

I just might be the best 22er in the wrold.

And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Drunken, philosophical pergesu is one of my favorites.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening)

[/ QUOTE ]

...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually Blue Feet, you were right. The OP wanted to know the percent chance that a "true" 15% ROI player would drop 11 or more buyins over a set of 300 SNG's and that works out to about 2.5%.

Here are the chance that a 15% player (with a finish distribution of 12.5/13/12.5) will lose money over various quantities of SNG's:

50 25%
100 16%
500 1.1%
1000 < 0.1%

a 10% ROI player (12/12/12.5)

50 32%
100 24%
500 6.2%
1000 1.4%

a 20% ROI player (13.4/13/13)

50 19%
100 10%
500 0.2%
1000 almost 0... over 10K simulations the worst result over 1000 SNG's for a true 20% ROI player was +2% ROI.

rvg