How to read results from Two Dimes

[crashdavis]

I was playing around with two dimes this morning because I want to add the web results to a program that I made that analyzes hands. I came across something that does not make sense. First assumption a +EV is the expected value of making this about of bets if playing the hand over and over, so a +.38 would be +.38 times 1 or 2 in a 1/2 7card stud game? If my statement is correct please continue.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=74381
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s tc 9c qh - th jh js - kh 5s 8c / 8s 5d 3c ks ts
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 9c Qh 133923 26.78 365903 73.18 174 0.03 0.268
Js Jh Th 276268 55.25 223566 44.71 166 0.03 0.553
5s 8c Kh 89635 17.93 410357 82.07 8 0.00 0.179


Lets say you are hand 2 Sure your Q beats his J if it is live and you have a two card flush BUT one 8 is dead (2 really but you can't see one) and 2 Kings are dead, so your straigh is all but dead dead, your expected to win 1/4 times with a positive +.268. Would you play this hand against a full bet from the Jacks.

Ok now hand 3 you have a rainbow with a King dead, this is reported as a positive .179? How can you justify playing this hand against a full bet from the Jack?

I am surely missing something on this one, please help.

[crashdavis]

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Lets say you are hand 2 Sure your Q beats

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Should read Lets say you are hand 1 Sure your Q beats

[7stud]

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...+EV is the expected value of making this about of bets if playing the hand over and over, so a +.38 would be +.38 times 1 or 2 in a 1/2 7card stud game?

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Neither. The twodimes result is the probability of winning the hand if you stay until the last card. If you want to know the expected value of a hand, you have to multiply the probabilities of the various outcomes by the gain or loss for each of the outcomes. So, if you are playing a $15-$30 game, you have to add up all the bets currently in the pot plus how many bets your opponents will put in the pot versus how much you will have to put in the pot now and in the future, and then compare that to the odds your hand will win.

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If my statement is correct please continue.

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How can a question be correct or not?

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BUT one 8 is dead (2 really but you can't see one)

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The probabilities given by twodimes assume you are playing the hand face up. If one of the eights is hidden in another players hand, from your point of view that's still a live card and it would positively effect your calculation of the odds of winning the hand as you sat at the table debating what to do.

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Would you play this hand against a full bet from the Jacks.

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As long as the real pot odds(current pot plus future bets by my opponents) are giving me the proper odds to play, I would certainly play the hand.

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Ok now hand 3 you have a rainbow with a King dead, this is reported as a positive .179? How can you justify playing this hand against a full bet from the Jack?

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Real pot odds.

[crashdavis]

Not trying to split hairs, just trying to understand the concepts. If the EV on two dimes is the percent win if you stay into the end, then what you really should be looking at is implied odds. This can be difficult to calculate unless you know what your opponents are going to do.

[7stud]

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then what you really should be looking at is implied odds

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Implied odds describes a situation in the middle betting rounds, where one card will make your hand a winner and if you don't get that card you will fold, so you only take into account the current amount you have to put in the pot to call versus the total amount you expect to win(=current pot + all of your opponent's future bets).

On the other hand, "effective odds"(or "real pot odds", or "real odds") describes the situation where you will stay until the last card.

[ QUOTE ]
This can be difficult to calculate unless you know what your opponents are going to do.

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You might also add: knowing what your opponent's have for a hand. Your statement is true of all the odds except pot odds(which applies when there is only one card to come).

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If the EV on two dimes is the percent win if you stay into the end

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cards........win.....%win.....lose...%lose..tie..% tie...EV
Tc 9c Qh 133923 26.78 365903 73.18 174 0.03 0.268

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Usually, there doesn't appear to be any difference between the %win and the EV, so I'm not sure what the EV is supposed to be in their simulations. I have noticed slight differences in some simulations.