KQo TP vs a double limp-re-raise preflop

carniplant · #1 07-27-2005, 04:44 PM

The Table is great,UTG+1 and MP1 are loose passive(~40/5 or worse) BB and MP2 are somewhat loose aggr(~35/15) and mp3 is the prize fish 75/0 , all are awful postflop.My table image is probably bad at the moment, i'm stuck ~20bb as a result of suckouts and monster draws not hitting.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (28 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (17.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (29.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero....

W. Deranged · #2 07-27-2005, 04:52 PM

1. There are actually a bunch of reasons why not to raise this pre-flop. Your hand isn't a great volume hand because it's unsuited and has limited straight potential. Raising here will make the pot larger and make your opponents "back into" correct calls with weak draws later on. Your expected equity edge, if it exists, against a big field is not great.

2. I really like how you played the flop and the turn. Players will be taking of tons of turns for two bets cold on the flop. You cannot protect against any legit draw, and many weak A-high type hands given the nature of the table and the pot size will call as well. Waiting for a blank turn card to raise seems like a very prudent move.

3. River you are playing against a minefield. I think you will be check-raised by a fancy-playing flush here very often, and some hands that may have you beat may have checked in fear of monsters. If you get check-raised here you are almost certainly beat but have to call on pot-size alone. Since you can't fold and the obvious draw hit in this kind of field I'd simply flip my cards over and pray. Other's may disagree, and I'd like to here an argument for a value bet. If the river is not a diamond I certainly bet here, but many small stakes players will attempt to check-raise the river even with most obvious draws, and I think on a Fundamental Theorem basis you are very often getting a 1-2 BB benefit by checking behind their mistake.

4. Truly superlative table selection.

bugstud · #3 07-27-2005, 04:58 PM

hell, I want to see everyone's hand...so checking has that bonus, too. FWIW I think the play was fine throughout.

carniplant · #4 07-27-2005, 05:01 PM

Don't you think KQo is a clear value raise againts this field?i'm also trying to buy the button as he was the only decent player in the game and was playing mostly weak,however i felt it was a good value raise even if i tought button would always call, FWIW i do call often in this spot when the players are better but againts this set it was too tempting since like you said the are always gonna call(i think the hand demonstrated that) maybe i overvalued my PF equity edge

TiltsMcFabulous · #5 07-27-2005, 05:02 PM

Nice hand. You really do have to check the river down here I think. There are so many weirdo 2 pairs that beat you, aside from the obvious flush. AK, AA, KK and 1010/88/55/33 beat you too. Probably not +EV to bet this into such a big field with only TP second kicker.

~ Tilts

brettbrettr · #6 07-27-2005, 05:09 PM

I'd have limped pre-flop, but otherwise, well played, sir.

W. Deranged · #7 07-27-2005, 05:13 PM

Against such a huge field, not having much "big hand" potential is a serious liability. Being suited here is worth an absolute ton. One or more opponents likely has an A or pair. You are going to need to hit the flop to win. Raising pre-flop may make things more difficult later on and you are not winning enough more than your fair share in such a big pot on average anyway.

Wait for hands that play particularly well in large multiway pots (think: suited broadway cards and, in a big enough field, small/medium pairs) that can make monster hands to raise here. KQo simply doesn't make monster hands, and that's what it'll often take to win these pots.

27offsooot · #8 07-27-2005, 05:13 PM

I think that i would cap PF. The overlimp RR screams suited connectors/ gambooooool. Yeah, u won't get rid of ANY draws post-flop, but u wouldn't have had anyways once the pot is three bets PF and u should have an equity edge against these players. Also, possibly folding out players that already called two cold (blinds) would rule.

Flop and turn are good. River is a check.

Edit - I would have raised PF as well, but i can see a limp. Just when it comes to be three bets, i like a cap.

Carmine · #9 07-27-2005, 05:32 PM

I don't know. Not betting this river just feels so weak. Giving up 5BB in value bets(if they all call). Just because the pot is large is no reason to be "satisfied" as is. Those LRR are all bogus. Nobody has shown great aggression. Does a flush chance it getting checked through. My first thought was to bet/fold the river, but no way I'm folding TP in this big a pot.

Screw it. Nothing has happened to tell me I don't have the best hand. I'm betting.

W. Deranged · #10 07-27-2005, 05:45 PM

This is not even close to a 5 BB decision. People need to realize that:

1. You will probably not usually be called by all five players. Probably on average ~3 players will see the showdown.

2. The amount of money you give up is really only equal to:

P(n)*n - 1

Where P(n) is the probability you win when called by n players (note, P is a decreasing function of n).

This is what you are giving up, not "5 BB." Sure, if this number is positive you are losing value, but this number is certainly not even close to 5, and, in my opinion, probably not meaningfully positive.

Add in the fact we could get check-raised and betting the river here is probably foolish. Getting check-raised and having to call a raise for pot-size issues (or even having to consider folding in a pot of this size) really, really sucks.