Playing a draw against a LAG, trying to pick up bluff outs

[TiltsMcFabulous]

Villian is extremely laggy (70/27), but will fold on occassion.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

The theory here was that I wanted to CR him to represent the J/10 or a possible big draw to pick up phantom bluffing outs. I was pretty confident he was not on a flush draw or a pair, or I would have seen a flop reraise for sure. I figure he has picked up a draw or a pair on the turn.

When the J comes on the river, I bet out intending to fold to a raise, as one of my phantom outs has come in and the pot is big enough to stab at. He surprised me with his call.

Thoughts?

~ Tilts

[etizzle]

this river bluff will never ever ever work on this board against an UTG raiser. Just let it go.

[ike]

Why are you trying so damn hard to bluff the 70/27 guy? Take advantage of the mistakes people are already making, don't make his calling station tendencies profitable by putting in lots of bets with the worst hand.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you trying so damn hard to bluff the 70/27 guy? Take advantage of the mistakes people are already making, don't make his calling station tendencies profitable by putting in lots of bets with the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's hadn't been a calling station. He'd laid down on the river quite a few times this session.

~ Tilts

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
this river bluff will never ever ever work on this board against an UTG raiser. Just let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was UTG+1 and you can safely assume his position means absolutely nothing. He plays the same from every position.

I'm not trying to be disagreeable, I'm just pointing out that his position is not relevant to this hand analysis.

~ Tilts

[etizzle]

you're right, but this is still never going to work

[ike]

Of course he's laid down on the river quite a few times. He's seeing 70% of flops and going to the river alot. You think he's been folding a lot of hands that beat king high though? I doubt it.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course he's laid down on the river quite a few times. He's seeing 70% of flops and going to the river alot. You think he's been folding a lot of hands that beat king high though? I doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'd fold a weak ace here or even a low PP.

~ Tilts

[etizzle]

but he wouldnt raise the turn with them. This is the key. 70 VPIP guys that raise the turn with small pairs dont fold them for one bet on the river heads up.

[IndieMatty]

Matador,

If he's that laggy, why not three bet to keep the BB from coming along?