Spidey Senses Tingling!

toss · #1 09-30-2005, 10:55 PM

Bdog 10/20 Full - Table is Sexily Loose

UTG Limps, MP limps, SB raises, I calls with Jd9d in the BB, rest call.

Flop is JcQd6h (7.7SB)

SB bets, we all call.

Turn is 9c (~6BB)

SB checks, I bet, UTG and MP calls, SB Check raises...

I want to fold. But those chips in the middle sure look tasty. My effective odds on calling down are like 7:1 to 9:1.

gharp · #2 10-01-2005, 02:02 AM

Why not raise the flop?

toss · #3 10-01-2005, 03:05 AM

I called planning on folding the turn without some improvement.

W. Deranged · #4 10-01-2005, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I called planning on folding the turn without some improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Toss,

I have a bit of concern about a play that involves calling a tenuous ~6 out draw in a with multiple players left behind you and no one acting before you except the flop bettor. It also concerns me a bit that you have a decent made hand that might be worth protecting.

I don't know. Calling here on the flop makes me uncomfortable because if you are raised behind you you probably aren't getting good enough effective odds to continue with many dirty outs, and if you don't perhaps you should have been raising to protect your middle pair anyway.

Since the pot is reasonably big I tend to think betting the flop is probably better than folding which is probably about equivalent to calling.

As for the turn, as played, the pot is big and you probably have a few more than 3 outs on average when behind. I don't see AQ or similar played in this manner often. You'll need to be ahead like 10% of the time you don't improve in order to merit a call here, which I think is pushing it. Implied odds help, but the multiple opponents may also have outs to hurt you which will damage your equity. I think folding is probably right though I imagine I would have a hard time doing it in the course of actual play.

W. Deranged · #5 10-01-2005, 04:04 AM

Edit: I meant *raising* is better than calling or folding, which I think are probably about equivalent.

toss · #6 10-01-2005, 04:33 AM

I see what you're saying. My outs can be cleaner and I'll avoid getting outdrawn on the river if I improve if I get the other two to drop on the flop. I think raising here could or probably is the better play as I should go after 9SB pots.

Villain had KdTd (so a flop raise would've been good). I couldn't fold the turn and on the river the pot is pretty big.