A Rebuy ? for Math Majors

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
If you go all in for 3K 10 minutes into a rebuy, I bet you get two callers w/ decent hands. Your AK is no longer a favorite, but it was probably +EV to push it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ] I completely agree and would push AK everytime in this situation, regardless as to whether I intend to rebuy or not.

[ QUOTE ]

Why would you not continue to play and take +EV situations? It doesn't take 45 minutes to build a stack in the 11r...

[/ QUOTE ] My point is that you can build a bigger stack with 60 minutes. So I still say you are maximizing your ROI by not rebuying. But maximizing ROI is not always the best goal.

[Hendricks433]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all.Now let's say you have only $31 left in your account . Are you better off spending $20 to rebuy now (with an extra $10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a bad statement IMO. If you only have $50 in your account you should not be playing rebuys. I also think your decisions in tournaments shouldnt be made based on your BR. The money you buy in with shouldnt matter, Dont play over your BR.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you've been playing for 15 minutes, push your 3000 chips with your AK, then lose it all.Now let's say you have only $31 left in your account . Are you better off spending $20 to rebuy now (with an extra $10 for the add-on), or are you better off waiting until tomorrow?

[/ QUOTE ] This is a bad statement IMO. If you only have $50 in your account you should not be playing rebuys. I also think your decisions in tournaments shouldnt be made based on your BR. The money you buy in with shouldnt matter, Dont play over your BR.

[/ QUOTE ] Of course you want to stay within your bankroll. It was only an example.

Here's something more concrete. The general consensus seems to be that you should have 100X buy-in. So if you have a $3100 bankroll and want to play the rebuys, then smart bankroll management would be to not allow yourself to rebuy beyond the first rebuy at the beginning of the tournament.

My only point is that it is wrong to say that you should not play the rebuys if you are not planning on rebuying. Logically, you maximize your ROI by never rebuying.

[BPA234]

Basically, what I am visualizing in my head is a line graph that shows entry/rebuy purchases intersecting with cashes. At some point the number of purchases exceeds the likely cash return. Finding a way to invest optimally for each set of conditions would be very helpful.

[ZBTHorton]

If you see it in your head, what is the answer?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, what I am visualizing in my head is a line graph that shows entry/rebuy purchases intersecting with cashes. At some point the number of purchases exceeds the likely cash return. Finding a way to invest optimally for each set of conditions would be very helpful.

[/ QUOTE ] You can't get that kind of graph, because you are thinking about this in the wrong way.

Your question is (or should be): Is it profitable for me to invest $20 in rebuying 3000 chips?

Here are 2 situations: You push 4 of your first 20 hands and lose everytime (let's say that every push was +EV--you are just having a bad run of cards). 10 minutes has passed. Should you invest $20 to rebuy another 3000 chips?

OR

You push only one hand--the 20th you are dealt. 10 minutes has passed. should you invest $20 to rebuy another 3000 chips?

You should see that the answer is the same. It doesn't matter that you invested $80 in one situation and $20 in the other. That is completely irrelevant to the question. You are faced with the question as to whether you should invest another $20, and you have 50 minutes to rebuild your bankroll.

The better way to approach this question is to determine beforehand how much you can invest in the rebuy, and to stick to that.

[BPA234]

Please understand, this is not about a specific rebuy scenario or a strategy request. Simply a request to see if there is a way to input some relevant data into a model that will produce a result that can be used to guide decisions on investment that yield over an annual period.

Since the factors can be expressed numerically, and since this is about results over time, I know this is possible. I just do not know how to write the math.

[Exitonly]

Again, you have to stop thinking of it as a collective investment.

If you drop 100 in a $10 rebuy, that's not a $100 investment, it's 5 seperate $20 investments (counting double rebuys). The outcome of one has no impact on the outcome of the others.

If you're +EV playing it once, you're +EV playing it a second time.
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jcm made points about the time remaining, but in the bigger rebuys that we're used to (like the 45k) if you're a winning player w/ 3000 chips to start, then you will be w/ 5000 and an hour in. So i don't think time remaining plays a significant role.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
jcm made points about the time remaining, but in the bigger rebuys that we're used to (like the 45k) if you're a winning player w/ 3000 chips to start, then you will be w/ 5000 and an hour in. So i don't think time remaining plays a significant role.

[/ QUOTE ] I probably am making too much of the time factor, for most winning players. But if you have a somewhat limited bankroll, then I think time is an important factor. If you have only 100X buy-ins, the smart thing if you bust out 30 minutes into the tournament is to come back the next day.

Actually sleep is the important factor for me. If I bust out with 10 minutes remaining, I'm giving it up and going to bed.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Again, you have to stop thinking of it as a collective investment.

If you drop 100 in a $10 rebuy, that's not a $100 investment, it's 5 seperate $20 investments (counting double rebuys). The outcome of one has no impact on the outcome of the others.

If you're +EV playing it once, you're +EV playing it a second time.

[/ QUOTE ]


What he said...Actually, I find myself thinking that about a lot of your recent posts. Now if I could only start getting your results.