A value bet

[Andy B]

A week ago Friday, I found myself in Canterbury’s $4/8 stud game. During the week, it’s only $2/4 and $3/6, but on Fridays, the high rollers descend upon the track and play either $4/8 or $6/12. Lately, it’s $4/8 with a $.50 ante most of the time. I can take only so much limit hold’em, and several friends were in the game, so I sat in for a little while.

After a while, I move to the 7 seat. E is in the 6 seat. We’ve played together many times over the years. He’s a nice guy, a decent player but on the weak-tight side. He is buried in this game. Can’t win a hand. We’ve all been there.

LH in the 1 seat brings it in for $2 with a Deuce in the door. There are four calls to E, who completes with the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the door. He doesn’t need to have Aces to make this play. Diamonds are pretty live, so a three-flush is a distinct possibility, or he could have a medium-to-big pocket pair. I am next with (K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and call. This is perhaps not the strongest call I’ve ever made, but

1) Pairs don’t come around that often.
2) My hand is live.
3) E can’t win a hand.
4) It’s four lousy dollars.
5) The King is coming.

So I call. Whether or not I should isn’t really the point of this post, but I think my hand is a hell of a lot better than the average hand of the four guys who limped in front of E, so I think I have a little equity. I don’t think that raising would have the desired effect for me. Guy behind me calls with a Ten, L folds, and the rest of the field calls. Seven to fourth street.

On fourth street, I catch a King for two pair. Told you it was coming. Unfortunately, the guy behind me pairs his Ten. There were no other Tens out on third street. I’ve played with this guy a time or two before, but I don’t know him nearly as well as I know most of the other players in the game, so no real read. Just your typical, not-very-good, low-limit stud player. He bets $8. Five folds to me (E had a three-flush), and I call. I think that one of my full house cards showed on fourth street.

On fifth I catch a Ten. This makes it somewhat less likely that he has trips, but trips remain a strong possibility. He bets and I call. Same action on sixth.

On the river, my opponent checks. I haven’t improved, but I make what I thought was an obvious value bet. My opponent called and showed pocket something-or-others and my hand was good.

E was astounded by my bet on the end. I don’t usually like to discuss strategy at the table, but this crew is a little different. I opined that if you can’t make bets like that, it’s very hard to make any money in this game. Too many low-limit stud players, including some of you, and even a goodly number of $20/40 players at Foxwoods, miss bets like this.

This is an obvious, obvious bet. I really didn’t think the other guy would check trip Tens on the end. It was very likely that he had two pair, and if that’s what he had, then it was overwhelmingly likely that my hand was a little better. He is going to pay off.

Let the E’s of the world miss these bets. Don’t you go missing them too.

[Michael Emery]

[ QUOTE ]
Let the E’s of the world miss these bets. Don’t you go missing them too.



[/ QUOTE ]

I wont. As a matter of fact I'd usually be sure to raise once I caught his ten, and then bet the rest of the way through. I really hope that no regulars on the stud forum would even consider checking with your hand once checked to on the river. Glad you took down a massive 4-8 pot Andy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

[bigredlemon]

Just to throw in a stud 8 perspective: if someone is showing a possible low straight or flush, villain will often check trips on the river. If someone is showing four to a low straight or flush, villain is going to check trips almost every time even 4-way.

[CJC]

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Glad you took down a massive 4-8 pot Andy.


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Christ, that is funny.. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

CJ

[jon_1van]

The only time checking the river isn't cleary the best play is when you caught the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on 4th and you think the opponent puts you on a flush draw. But even then it would require the opponent to be so paranoid to think "any money going in on the river will be bad for me" while holdind trip Tens. This line of thinking is so phenomenally bad that you should know who is so weak.

I would expect most players to bet trips on the river regardless.

[ACPlayer]

You will rarely see trips bet into a possible flush/straight draw board at Foxwoods, even if the flush cards are pretty dead!

This is specially true of the 10-20 game, but also valid in the 20-40 game.

Even more interesting is that it is more likely for a "tourist" to bet the trips then the regular TOMs that you find at the tables.

[jon_1van]

TOM?

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
TOM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tight Old Men?

[ACPlayer]

.

[CJC]

[ QUOTE ]
You will rarely see trips bet into a possible flush/straight draw board at Foxwoods, even if the flush cards are pretty dead!


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Thas's because if you put your opponent on a drawing hand ( and thats all..important point ), there is no point in betting trips on the river if you don't improve, you are only going to get called by a hand that beats you. You are much better off letting your opponent try and bet his busted draw.

O one more thing....I disagree with your analysis of the $20-40 game at Foxwoods. ( you were more accurate with the $10-20 game though )

CJ