Hypothetical question that will blow your mind.

No, you're going to raise enough PF to get the "2"'s to fold. This is precisely my point.

In limit, I'd rather know what my opponents hold than see the flop before them. Because the betting is incremental, and a river bet isn't big in proportion to the size of the pot.

Also, imagine holding pocket 2's in LP (In a NL game) and knowing the final board is going to be AKQ22, you would have phenomenal power over this field. Hope this is more clear.

And in limit, it's better to know what your opponents hold. Say you have AK against a bunch of opponents. 1 has AQ, another has AQ, another has AQ, one has KQ, one has KJ, and another has KJ.

You know that no "Q" will flop, and no "K" will flop. This means that you really only have to worry about the "AQ" hands making a straight (needing 1 of the 2 remaining J's to fall). And, if one of the "J"s fall, than KJ takes the lead. Also, flushes would worry you a bit. But basically, you are a huge advantage to still have the best hand no matter what the flop is.

Knowing the flop here isn't going to help as much. Plus, you know that players will 3-bet and cap with all these AQ hands and stuff.

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]

Also, imagine holding pocket 2's in LP (In a NL game) and knowing the final board is going to be AKQ22, you would have phenomenal power over this field. Hope this is more clear.


[/ QUOTE ]

Holding 22 and knowing the final board will be AKQ22 of course puts you in great shape. Unfortunately, this will happen quite infrequently. You must consider not only the magnitude of the advantage you gain but also the frequency with which you can exploit this edge. If you can see your opponent's hole cards, you will never put a bet into the pot getting the worst of it unless you choose to do so (because your knowledge of your opponent's cards will allow you to make up the difference on later streets).

Knowing that you're going to flop a miracle full house or quads is great, but it just isn't going to happen enough in limit or no-limit to make it more advantageous than knowing your opponents cards.

Of course it does.

I'd much MUCH rather see the final board in a NL game. How is this not obvious? If you hold 22 and the final board is AJQ9A, you can fold PF no worries.

pocket 2's will make a set at least by the river far often enough for this to be a huge advantage. You don't need a "Miracle Quads" for this to be helpful.

OR... you hold TJ

You know the flop will be AKQ84.

Or you hold 36 and you know the flop will be AK245, imagine all the hands that pay you off. Knowing the whole community ahead of time is far more advantageous in NL.

[SocialWelfareIV]

The problem is that sets, two pair, etc....they're all cracked from time to time.

You're still going to have to make marginal decisions if you know the whole board in advance. What are you doing if you know you're going to flop top pair with your AK (even on a non-scary board)? What happens when you have a tough decision to make on a check raise? Does your opponent have a set or a raggedy two pair?

You make a set, what 25% or so of the time by the river? And you have a pocket pair about 5% of the time. So you're talking about playing 1.3% of hands for sets, some of which are going to be cracked.

In poker, there are three things that you don't know: the cards that are coming, the cards that your opponent has, and what your opponent will do. If you know what your opponent has, you also know with great likelihood what your opponent will do. And even if you don't know what cards are coming, you understand what the probability of these cards coming is. You should NEVER make a mistake under these circumstances. Whereas, just knowing the board cards, you will inevitably make mistakes.

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]
OR... you hold TJ

You know the flop will be AKQ84.

Or you hold 36 and you know the flop will be AK245, imagine all the hands that pay you off. Knowing the whole community ahead of time is far more advantageous in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice, but you realize that you're not going to have the nuts all that often, right?

And you do realize that when you have the nuts, you're not necessarily getting paid off?

Sure you will. You just never get to see it b/c often times you fold 36 PF. Even if a 4 flops it's not like you can stick around to catch your 57 or 25 on the turn and river, in NL.

You will have the nut hand by the river far more than you are imagining.

All of this stuff that you mention... this is all normal skill stuff.

I can't help you with that. You knowing the final community board should be useful enough to not go broke in these situations. I mean sure you may have a set by the river and may be dead to a higher set... sorry.

Tough break. You still need to decipher if you're beat or not. It shouldn't be that hard.

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure you will. You just never get to see it b/c often times you fold 36 PF. Even if a 4 flops it's not like you can stick around to catch your 57 or 25 on the turn and river, in NL.

You will have the nut hand by the river far more than you are imagining.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your estimate as to how often you'll have the nut hand on the river?

If we're talking about ten handed play, I would be shocked if it was more than 2% of the time, and would guess that it is even less than 1%.

I'm not really sure how to get an accurate calculation of this though -- I just figure that of your winners, probably less than 10%, but maybe as much as 20%, are the nuts. To be honest, it seems as though 20% of your winning hands being the nuts is way too high.

[Note -- I'm assuming that 10% of your hands are winners].

[Twitch1977]

[ QUOTE ]
this answer becomes amazingly clear when you know what the fundamental theorem of poker is

[/ QUOTE ]