JTs--play along

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
This is also why I three bet preflop. If I do, I bet the 2+2er, sb, and bb aren't there anymore

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets not be flop-results oriented.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

UTG (laggy pre-flop, post-flop he's dumb aggresive when no one else is and passive when someone else is aggro ) raises, utg+1 (try to play decent type, not good, but not com,pletely braindead) calls, utg+2 (unknown seems tight) calls, MP1 (very loose, fairly sratightforward post-flop) calls, tight player in MP2 calls, I have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
and the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the burn.

I ___________.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine.

I call, a solid 2p2er calls in the small blind, the BB (loose passive type) calls.


8 to the flop for 16 sbs:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, one fold,

I__________.

[/ QUOTE ]

A bit more info I guess.

At the time I though UTGs range here is any pair, any ace, bigger kings, and of course a queen, eight or seven. Yes, he could be making a continuation bet into the field.


MP1 would have most likely raised a queen, maybe even second pair or a flush draw. His range is a bit tougher to figure out, but I'm almost positive he doesn't have a queen.

[brettbrettr]

Alright, I'll just get to the point:

Assuming neither player has a queen, how many outs do we have here? How much do we discount the nines, tens and jacks considering the heart draw?

Also bear in mind that one ten is dead.

[shant]

When I first saw this hand I thought to raise initially, for free card possibility and cleaning outs etc. I'm no math expert, so maybe someone smart can help me out here and explain why that might be bad with the hearts on the board because I count ~7 outs.

[JojoDiego]

I too thought about raising here for a free card. The UTG scares easily (right?) and the loose MP1 caller hasn't shown any strength. Of course, suffering a check-raise from the blinds would suck.

[rmarotti]

I think 7 is a little generous as not only do we have to worry about our heart outs being tainted, but our pair cards either give gutshots a straight, or someone an OESD that they might peel again with. Granted, alot of those hands are in serious trouble against us, but I still put us somewhere between 5-6 outs and I think a raise here would be bad.

I'm on heavy medication right now, so if none of that makes sense, that's why.

[silkyslim]

I would count 3x 9's, and our J's and T's as 2 outs. Why wouldnt UTG have a Q though? anyway, since we have odds to continue, I like to raise for a free card and maybe fold the blinds for some cleaner outs. for those advocating calling, can you list the ways this is better than raising?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldnt UTG have a Q though?

[/ QUOTE ]

He could easily have a Q. He could easily have a ton of hands though and his bet means precisely nothing to me.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldnt UTG have a Q though?

[/ QUOTE ]

He could easily have a Q. He could easily have a ton of hands though and his bet means precisely nothing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
so in a pot this big you cant do the "fit or fold" thing. We want to think of ways of winning it so we cant assume UTG's bet is teh nuts (TP) like we could if the pot was tiny.

[brettbrettr]

I never considered folding. That wasn't a consideration at all.