67s - 100NL - i probably play bad

unlucky513 · #1 12-14-2005, 11:15 PM

party 100NL 6max, 5 handed

no real reads, villian has been here for 40 or so hands, hasn't done anything out of line

no fold preflop comments, i've been playing very LAG

i ($250) call UTG w/ 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], fold, villain (button, $110) makes it $4, i'm only caller

$10 flop 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
i bet $7, he makes it $30

plenty of options - let me hear your play and give reasons

tagtastic · #2 12-14-2005, 11:31 PM

Push? You're a dog only to a set and a higher flush draw, and you're far from dead vs. those as well.

DJ Sensei · #3 12-15-2005, 01:38 AM

since you're oop, you dont want to call and see a blank turn. push and take his stack.

if he calls you an idiot after you do so, you probably should take note that he, in fact, is the idiot. if he rebuys, take his stack again. that'll teach him.

Cosimo · #4 12-15-2005, 01:38 AM

You're 54% to hit either your straight or flush. Unless he's got A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you're in good shape. You're a favorite against AA and KK. 51.62% against one with a diamond, 56.62% against one without.

I'm risk-averse. While typing this up, I just had 78s against a 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hand. I didn't push, but I reraised big (from position), checked the turn when I missed, and checked the river when that missed too.

Thing is, I was a 64% favorite in the hand, so for every dollar I got him to call, I was profiting about 30c. Of course, I didn't know his hand at the time. The biggest raise that he'd call would make good money; if he folded, I'd take down the pot there.

So, dunno. It's easy to say "push" but I'm not sure I believe it myself. Someone, convince me plz. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

#5 12-15-2005, 01:41 AM

I think when you lead the turn, you pretty much are required to shove it in there when he reraises you. If you had check/raised it'd be a whole different ball game, but the only reason to lead this flop is that you're hoping to take it down or 3 bet with a shove.

#6 12-15-2005, 01:42 AM

If it's overpair, you're up 60/40, before you've even considered your fold equity.

If it's a set, you're well behind and have no fold equity.

If it's a draw, he should now fold to a push straight away, as the best draw he can realisitcally have is J10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] any other draw and he's getting horrible pot odds to call.

I'd say you're about 50/50, before you've considered fold equity, which should be very considerable, so push and pray.

Mercman572 · #7 12-15-2005, 02:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]

no fold preflop comments, i've been playing very LAG

i ($250) call UTG

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I especially hate it when you CALL UTG. What does that say to YOU when a lag breaks trend and limp calls? To me it says he's got a hand even HE feels isn't worth raising. I think he puts you on a draw, but I doubt he can guess how strong of a draw that is. I don't know how much fold equity you have here, but you are a favorite against most of his holdings (I suspect he's married to his overpair). But I have no way of knowing how rational he is or how conspicuously lag you've been playing, and if he can adapt to that. That beeing said, He's put about a 1/3 of his stack in already and you need to see both cards. I guess push

unlucky513 · #8 12-15-2005, 09:14 AM

i agree - PF was bad.. not something i'd normally do.

anyway, i flat call his flop raise, on to the turn...

(~$70)TURN
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

what is the best play here? villain has about ~$75 left

#9 12-15-2005, 09:26 AM

Preflop aint too horrible, especially if the table isn't very aggressive. Also, if you are playing LAG you are more likely to get paid off if / when you hit.

Anyway, push over that $30 bet. No other way to play it. In position you can call a flop lead sometimes.

unlucky513 · #10 12-15-2005, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, push over that $30 bet. No other way to play it. In position you can call a flop lead sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm suprised at the number of replies that have advised a push on the flop - looking back it seems like the best line to take.

i'd never seen villain do anything like this so i put him on an overpair. i wasn't sure if i wanted him to call my push - should i? i probably play scared so i just called. how bad is that??