T9s, a hand v Hobbs.

brettbrettr · #1 11-16-2005, 12:35 AM

Copincidentally, Hobbs is sitting to my right here. Neither of us had gotten out of line, and both are playing our A games, it seemed to me.

I'm card dead as hell, hence the limp. Even if I'm not card dead, I don't think the limp is terrible. This was a pretty good table. But its not great, and I'm not bragging about the limp.

Anyway, recommendations on the river please?

FWIW, I think Hobbs will raise this turn with 55-88 intending to take a free showdown, or even value bet me if the rivber isn't ugly. So, while I'm not sure I'm behind on the turn, I'm not sure I'm not drawing dead either which while remote is still possible.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 5 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

thesharpie · #2 11-16-2005, 12:42 AM

I'd bet/call the river. A set seems so unlikely, 22 might go for overcalls in this small pot and 99 is not only 1 combo but might've raised preflop. If you think he'd value bet 55-88 then a check/raise might be in order, but I think he's taking a free showdown alot of the time.

toss · #3 11-16-2005, 12:46 AM

Hobbs hand feels really like 55 or 66 or 33. If you had 3-bet the turn he would have probably fold. I also see him taking a free showdown on the river a lot here. So donkbet and hope he calls out of confusion. And fold if he raises.

BigEndian · #4 11-16-2005, 12:56 AM

I can't remember if I commented on this hand earlier. I think I would bet the river and call a raise in the heat of battle.

I wonder if he would bet his 55-88 on the end or take a shot at it with an unlikely busted flush draw. Checking to induce a bluff has possiblities too.

- Jim

brettbrettr · #5 11-16-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would bet the river and call a raise in the heat of battle.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absoutely what I would do in the heat of battle. But, in the coolheadedness of forum posting, I'm not sure we should be calling the raise.

Do you really think Hobbs is capable of bluffing this river with any hand that I beat? If I check-call the turn, then donk the ten, then I'd have to call, because my play would look too much like a missed flush draw so he might raise pairs that I do beat. But, in this case, I'm not sure.

This brings me to my next question. Is the turn a good bet call? Should I have checkraised?

W. Deranged · #6 11-16-2005, 01:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think Hobbs is capable of bluffing this river with any hand that I beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

W. Deranged · #7 11-16-2005, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This brings me to my next question. Is the turn a good bet call? Should I have checkraised?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with check-raising is that Hobbs will be very capable of finding a fold with a hand like 55 there. Betting both the turn and the river is a better way to get two bets in, particularly as he'll often raise the turn with inferior hands.

Personally, I think we should be betting the turn, calling the raise, and donk-betting the river even if the T doesn't come up. And I do think we need to call a river raise because if Hobbs knows who you are he's got to know you are donking the river with the intent of folding to a raise a huge percentage of the time. (In fact, in Hobbs position, if he knew it were you, you could argue raising the river is better than calling with almost any hand he'd want to call with).

brettbrettr · #8 11-16-2005, 01:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If Hobbs knows who you are he's got to know you are donking the river with the intent of folding to a raise a huge percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really ever find myself thinking this way on the river. Splain please.

FWIW, HObbs knows its me.

W. Deranged · #9 11-16-2005, 01:36 AM

The basic thought is just that when skilled players donk bet the river they are often doing so to prevent a free-showdown or whatever, but will always at least be considering folding to a raise. The fact that you might even consider a fold to a raise in this hand, and that sometimes Hobbs has a hand you'll beat, means that he might reasonably raise this river with a fairly broad range of holdings. (Raising with A9s, for example, would hardly be out of the question as a value-bluff, and so on...)

molawn2mo · #10 11-16-2005, 01:38 AM

I agree with toss, here. Hobbs play is consistant with small to mid PP. After all there are a small number of hands that you can even think about limp with (J9s, T9s, A9s). He has no reason to think that the 9 helped you by counterfeiting him.

I think you have a turn 3 bet or a river donk, here, dependent upon whether or not you feel he can fold to the 3 bet. If so, then call the turn raise and donk the river.