QQ v unknown on scary board

brettbrettr · #1 11-16-2005, 12:24 AM

This was a bad spot earlier...what do you fellas think of my plan?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks with the intention of raising a jack and calling a three bet, raising a queen and folding to a three bet, and has no idea if he's folding to a river bet on a blank.

toss · #2 11-16-2005, 12:28 AM

I'd bet again with that being the last $$ I'm putting into the pot.

Nick C · #3 11-16-2005, 12:34 AM

Your plan sounds good to me.

I don't think I'd fold to a bet on a blank. Villain could be taking a stab with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after our show of weakness on the turn. Is that what he'll be doing often enough? I'm not sure, really -- partly because this is 10/20, which I've never played, but I wouldn't know at 5/10 either.

I'll admit that I might just call on a queen, since I know I'd have trouble folding a set to a 3-bet. But I think I like your plan better (though I wouldn't be shocked if Villain folded to your raise).

toss · #4 11-16-2005, 12:42 AM

Why did you check the turn? Villain is often going to be on a draw or have called the flop with a weak pair. If we check we're opening ourselves to being bluffed out on the river. And if we get checkraised on the turn it's not really going to be a disaster folding our potentially dirty gutshot and set outs.

brettbrettr · #5 11-16-2005, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the turn? Villain is often going to be on a draw or have called the flop with a weak pair. If we check we're opening ourselves to being bluffed out on the river. And if we get checkraised on the turn it's not really going to be a disaster folding our potentially dirty gutshot and set outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I check the turn because I give villan maybe a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with the flop call. The Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is possible too. Basically, I'm giving the unknowns at 10/20 more credit than the once I used to see. Also, this guy called the flop bet, could have an ace. If the turn weren't a king, I think its a pretty easy bet-fold. But that king really sort of sucks. If I'm ahead, he's drawing to few outs. If I'm not, I have a chance to improve.

I don't think checking this turn is horrible. But this is why I posted it...

flopmonster · #6 11-16-2005, 12:53 AM

I think your line is best. If a brick comes off on the river I think a call is definitely worthwhile here. nice hand

BigEndian · #7 11-16-2005, 12:59 AM

I think I said to bet this turn when we talked before. At least I hope I did because that's what I'm thinking now. You can easily fold to a raise and take a free showdown if checked to on the river.

Edit: Free showdown if you don't improve that is.

- Jim

molawn2mo · #8 11-16-2005, 01:00 AM

No stats/reads on utg? I'm certain you have them (10/20 full is a relatively small club). Is he likely to limp Axs or Ax?

Villain can be a middle to high spade (though the higher the spade the greater the liklihood that you would have been c/red onthe flop). Villain can be on an A. Villain can be slow playing a flush.

In each scenario Villain is seeing the river. The turn check is good.

Now the river... Your plan seem good but methinks you fold to a donk. Also, if checked to I assume that you check behind.

brettbrettr · #9 11-16-2005, 01:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No stats/reads on utg? I'm certain you have them

[/ QUOTE ]

No stats whatsoever.

molawn2mo · #10 11-16-2005, 01:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I said to bet this turn when we talked before. At least I hope I did because that's what I'm thinking now. You can easily fold to a raise and take a free showdown if checked to on the river.

Edit: Free showdown if you don't improve that is.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking on the turn, and it may well be weak thinking, is that small spadeless PPs ought not peel on the flop. That said, there appears to be no fold equity on the turn and betting same opens hero up to a single spade semi-bluff to which you would be folding the best hand.