Hit a set, weird spot

TheMainEvent · #1 11-14-2005, 01:16 PM

Villian is laggy and unpredictable. Easy valuebet on the river?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6 BB

MrWookie47 · #2 11-14-2005, 01:19 PM

The value in this bet is pretty slim, even against pretty loose opponents. Against a passive, predictable player, I could see betting, but against a laggy unpredictable one, I don't want to risk getting bluffed out of the pot. I like the check.

aargh57 · #3 11-14-2005, 01:22 PM

I would think so. If he's LAGy he can probably call you with 2 pair or even 1 pair quite often. If he had the A you would've probably gotten raised on the turn. Sometimes he'll raise you and turn over the A but I think the majority of the time you will win with a value bet here (enough to make up for the times he raises you with a better hand). Also, if he's unpredictable, his raising doesn't always necessarily mean he's got the A. He may try a bluff raise here as well. I know this would be rare but this type of player may try it.

sean c · #4 11-14-2005, 01:25 PM

I would only bet if your comfortable putting two bets in on the river. I couldn't bet/fold the river but i could bet/call.

#5 11-14-2005, 04:18 PM

Why are you betting this flop? Against 2 opponents and 3 overs out there, you aren't going to take this pot down very often. I don't get it. But I don't play 6-max only full ring.

Aaron W. · #6 11-14-2005, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you betting this flop? Against 2 opponents and 3 overs out there, you aren't going to take this pot down very often. I don't get it. But I don't play 6-max only full ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raised preflop, it was checked to him, and he's last to act. This should be an autobet (almost) regardless of the flop texture when you hold a pocket pair. Villains don't know Hero only has TT.

Edit: Crap. I misread the action. I thought hero had the button. However, betting is still almost always correct when raising preflop with a pocket pair in SH games. There's no reason to believe that limping villain MUST have a broadway card and SB completing villain has one also. If I raised 55 preflop in that spot, I would be betting this flop as well.

aargh57 · #7 11-14-2005, 04:26 PM

Well he's not last to act but I agree with you about betting here. He's got the OESD and could buy the button and possibly win the pot.

MrWookie47 · #8 11-14-2005, 04:26 PM

Hero isn't last to act, but I think this is a solid semibluff.

TheMainEvent · #9 11-14-2005, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you betting this flop? Against 2 opponents and 3 overs out there, you aren't going to take this pot down very often. I don't get it. But I don't play 6-max only full ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raised preflop, it was checked to him, and he's last to act. This should be an autobet (almost) regardless of the flop texture when you hold a pocket pair. Villains don't know Hero only has TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. I showed considerable strength by raising from the BB, I would expect a fold from a lone jack, sometimes even a weak queen here. Even 6max donks are usually sharp enough to assume this flop hits a legitimate PFR.

#10 11-14-2005, 04:50 PM

Laggy, huh? How has he played Ax in the past? I'm not very worried about a 9, so fire away. I'd probably pay off the raise unless I was certain of the A.