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#1
08-10-2005, 06:45 PM
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Simple probability problem
On page 126, first paragraph of Harrington On Hold'em Vol1:
1. Higher pair versus lower pair. The higher pair is about 82% to win, or about a 4.5:1 favorite. This is probably just my non-math brain kicking in and I've never commited any of this to memory since I've not been a no-limit player. But...can this be right? 100/4.5 =22.2 that's 77.8%. Yes? ---Leavenfish 
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#2
08-10-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: Simple probability problem
Your math is fine, but 4.5:1 means the higher pair wins 4.5 times and loses 1 time out of 5.5. 4.5/5.5 = 81.8%.
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#3
08-10-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: Simple probability problem
[ QUOTE ]
On page 126, first paragraph of Harrington On Hold'em Vol1: 1. Higher pair versus lower pair. The higher pair is about 82% to win, or about a 4.5:1 favorite. This is probably just my non-math brain kicking in and I've never commited any of this to memory since I've not been a no-limit player. But...can this be right? 100/4.5 =22.2 that's 77.8%. Yes? ---Leavenfish [/ QUOTE ] No. 100/5.5 = 18.2 -> ~82%. 4.5:1 favorite = 4.5/5.5 =~ 82%. 4.5:1 underdog = 1/5.5 =~ 18%.
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#4
08-10-2005, 08:40 PM
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Re: Simple probability problem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On page 126, first paragraph of Harrington On Hold'em Vol1: 1. Higher pair versus lower pair. The higher pair is about 82% to win, or about a 4.5:1 favorite. This is probably just my non-math brain kicking in and I've never commited any of this to memory since I've not been a no-limit player. But...can this be right? 100/4.5 =22.2 that's 77.8%. Yes? ---Leavenfish [/ QUOTE ] No. 100/5.5 = 18.2 -> ~82%. 4.5:1 favorite = 4.5/5.5 =~ 82%. 4.5:1 underdog = 1/5.5 =~ 18%. [/ QUOTE ] So, I guess I was calculating this all wrong. Ex: KK vs JT is 5:1 and that is not 80%?
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#6
08-10-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: Simple probability problem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So, I guess I was calculating this all wrong. Ex: KK vs JT is 5:1 and that is not 80%? [/ QUOTE ] 5:1 means you win 5 and lose 1, so you win 5 out of 6, and 5/6 =~ 83.3%. [/ QUOTE ] I think I get it: A pair vs 1 higher and 1 lower card is a 2.5:1 favorite. Therefore the pair wins 2.5 out of 3.5 times = 71.4% Thanks BurceZ! ---Leavenfish
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