44 BB defense, river check-fold.

zephed · #1 08-09-2005, 08:00 AM

Villain is semi-loose (~40vpip), and aggressive.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (6.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

zephed · #2 08-10-2005, 08:13 PM

I'd be happy with a one liner...

#3 08-10-2005, 08:24 PM

Assuming a 'normal' stealing range for someone who is fairly aggresive - say any two cards higher than 9, all pocket pairs - there is nothing left that you beat when the ace hits the river except 22. He more than likely has a decent piece of this board, he isn't folding HU, so check fold the river is good. Read-dependent of course, I would nearly always bet the turn here. But when he calls and that river card hits, I let it go.

bdubs · #4 08-10-2005, 09:00 PM

If you are going to defend then I would 3 bet preflop then bet on the flop.

zephed · #5 08-10-2005, 09:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to defend then I would 3 bet preflop then bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
My EV goes up a lot on the flop. I'm also having trouble with overaggressive players who will cap with just about anything they raised here. Being out of position sucks.

This makes it tough to call down when I hold a small pair.

I'd feel better check-raising and folding to a 3 bet here than 3-betting preflop, having him cap, and have no idea where I stand.

Victor · #6 08-10-2005, 10:10 PM

i do this often and i thiink its fine.

if i have ever noticed opp bluffing i call the riv.

MarkD · #7 08-10-2005, 10:11 PM

Just for the sake of curiosity I stoved this. Assume villian starts with 40% of hands.

River equity: 14.9%
Turn equity: 35.3%
Flop equity: 45%

And this is assuming villian doesn't fold any of his hands all the way to the river. You are in bad bad shape on the river and like the fold. Flop and turn appear to be solid.

ps. I've never done an analysis of a hand like this before but the results are interesting here.

zephed · #8 08-10-2005, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the sake of curiosity I stoved this. Assume villian starts with 40% of hands.

River equity: 14.9%
Turn equity: 35.3%
Flop equity: 45%

And this is assuming villian doesn't fold any of his hands all the way to the river. You are in bad bad shape on the river and like the fold. Flop and turn appear to be solid.

ps. I've never done an analysis of a hand like this before but the results are interesting here.

[/ QUOTE ]
40% is probably correct, but what specific hands did you input?

Is this my flop equity on this specific board?

I would narrow his hands a little after he calls my turn check-raise. This could be overcards, or some weaker pair that beats me. I think a queen is often 3 betting me here. A's and K's will sometimes go for the flop smoothcall-turn raise also.

MarkD · #9 08-11-2005, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just for the sake of curiosity I stoved this. Assume villian starts with 40% of hands.

River equity: 14.9%
Turn equity: 35.3%
Flop equity: 45%

And this is assuming villian doesn't fold any of his hands all the way to the river. You are in bad bad shape on the river and like the fold. Flop and turn appear to be solid.

ps. I've never done an analysis of a hand like this before but the results are interesting here.

[/ QUOTE ]
40% is probably correct, but what specific hands did you input?

Is this my flop equity on this specific board?

I would narrow his hands a little after he calls my turn check-raise. This could be overcards, or some weaker pair that beats me. I think a queen is often 3 betting me here. A's and K's will sometimes go for the flop smoothcall-turn raise also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the first sentence. I put your opponent on the top 40% of the 169 starting hands. It's an easy fast way of doing this analysis.

Yes, 45% is your equity on this specific flop against the above range of hands.

Yes, your equity is going to drop substantially when we account for the fact that villian called your flop check raise. My analysis is the absolute best case scenario for you and it's not peachy is it? Although, villian's hand range likely does not drop to as narrow a range as you cite in the above post. He is going to peel one off with a LOT of hands on this flop and then will subsequently fold a lot of these on the turn.

zephed · #10 08-11-2005, 03:23 AM

Oh man, disregard my last post, I keep on thinking it was QJx on the flop. I meant Jacks, really.

I don't think he has a jack here. Overpairs are less likely too.

Also, on your stove analysis, did you change his range of hands between flop turn and river, or is it still the top 40%?