Yeah, I turned Trips!

[bluefeet]

i'm trying to keep up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

...i'm only making the decision to NOT fold on the turn, because i believe i am ahead. and it is a flush draw, that i believe i might be ahead of (or maybe a 2nd-pair bluff). we already have a >t1000 pot. why would i give him the river card? am i to risk losing a pot this size, this early if he is semi-bluffing the flush? if he misses on the river, i'm not getting any more chips.

what assumptions are you making, that make calling the turn bet an option? if i had any reason to believe he had a Q or TT/22, i'm folding to the turn raise.

let me put it another way:
- we know we're NOT calling the turn if we KNEW he had TT or 22
- we know we ARE calling if we KNEW he didn't have TT, 22, or a Q

so if we DO make the call only....we are giving button a chance to pass us on the river, aren't we?

the only other possible turn call is if we KNEW he had a Qx (where X>5), and we stood a good chance to split. if this is what i KNEW, i would fold the turn raise with plenty of chips intact.

don't give up on me here...please reply

[freemoney]

im not giving up on you but villian is on the good/passive side right? so say he has a hand like KJ or 2 diamonds...hes not calling if we push the turn...if hes bluffing hes not calling if we push the turn...if he has a big pair like AA or KK which is very unlikely hes not gonna always call if we push and is drawing to 2 outs....say he has a better hand like AQ...our line looks much more like a flush draw then a Q so he should be just as scared of a diamond so he wont always push river if diamond comes with a hand that is better and if he does then u have another decision to make, also a diamond only comes 1/5 times so 80% of the time this isnt an issue, now say he does have a flush draw that missed u are giving him the opportunity to bluff, the whole idea is by pushing the turn against a good/passive player you really do a perfect job of forcing him to fold every hand worse than yours and call with every hand better than yours, this is forcing/letting villian play perfect.

[curtains]

freemoney the pot is extremely large, its not a huge disaster if we make them fold diamonds. Also why the hell would a "passive" player call the flop with the intention of raising the turn with a flush draw.

If you honestly think that theres any chance this guy would raise to 475 here on the turn with a flush or straight draw with the intention of folding for his remaining 450 chips if raised then you are really deluded.

[pokerraja]

In sngs, I make a read and I go with it. My read is im ahead here as i stated for reasons above. If you win this pot you are in very very good shape. If you fold now, your just a little better than average shape. We all play a ton of sngs and do very well. Most of the sngs we play we can play robot poker and do well. Every once in awhile its ok to go with a read, and if you lose who cares, we do afterall have healthy bankrolls, i hope.

[bluefeet]

i do understand that, i really do......but [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...

for sake of the discussion, we'll agree to call the turn bet because...

1 - we might be ahead and stand to get more chips
2 - we might be behind, but could get him to fold on the river
3 - we might be behind, but could see a 'cheap' showdown

is this correct?

now this gets pretty interesting. if you count the Ace, K, 9, and 8 for OESD 'scare' cards, we have all 16 out there. add the remaining 5 diamonds (assuming we assume he has two, or he assumes we have two!!) - we have a total of 21 'action' cards.

non-action card on river
what do you advocate?
- if we called the turn because of #1, we push correct? but if we are in fact ahead, he's not likely to call this river, true?
- if we called the turn because of #2, we missed!! (in his mind). i see no other option than check/fold
- if we called the turn because of #3, we check/fold or roll the dice and check/call

gets fun now....

action card on river
what do you advocate?
- if we called the turn because of #1, we're in trouble - no? he now may be ahead. check/fold?
- if we called the turn because of #2, we hit!! (in his mind). pushing is the only option true?
- if we called the turn because of #3, we hit!! (in his mind). pushing is the only option true?


so here's my delima with calling - by being out of position, there is NO river card that will provide us with any clue as to whether we're here because of #1, #2, or #3!!

and without knowing, we are either... a) pushing blind, b) check/calling blind, or c) check/folding, or d) check-check

(a) is no better than pushing on the turn, because he's not calling the river push unless we're beat
(b) is ONLY going to be better than pushing on the turn, when button continues a bluff/AA/KK/AT hand - in all other cases we're broke
(c) is never better than folding to the turn raise (had we pushed, we might not be here) - could be better than pushing the turn (we still have chips), but NOT if it's because the river put him ahead
(d) is only...............oh boy, nose bleed!!

for me it basically boils down to this:
- the river will SELDOM provide the opportunity for you to collect additional chips in an already HUGE pot
- the river might provide the opportunity for button to pull ahead AND collect most of YOUR chips
- the river MIGHT reveal, via check-check, that you have in fact won (having collected no additional chips...at the risk of giving the river card), or you have in fact lost - possibly because you DID give the river card.

i don't know that i convinced anyone of anything, but i still have to put calling behind pushing or folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[bluefeet]

Ps. Nottom? You are banned from posting a similar hand for 1 week!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[curtains]

No offense, but my general position is that whenever you make a hand this complex, you are generally doing something wrong/overthinking things.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Go ahead and flame me by telling me he turned over flopped pp trips, to make a boat on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I could, but I folded and he didn't show.

I can honestly say I don't think I've ever folded trips in a SNG before without an obvious draw hitting, and I don't feel bad about folding these. Maybe I was wrong, but this guy didn't seem like the type to raise the turn on a draw or with 2nd pair, but this is almost exactly how I would expect him to play somethign like QJ.

Every now and then my spidey sences start tingling and I tend to ignore them and call anyway, but they are right an amazing amount of the time. This time I decided to give them the benefit of the doubt.

[bluefeet]

I hear you my friend. My ramblings certainly aren't indicative of the actual decision. I just really wanted to nail down the gap between Mr. Freemoney's thinking and my own.

i'll quit beating him -->

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding would certainly have to be better than calling. If we call because we MIGHT be ahead, we're only giving button a chance to pull ahead on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pull ahead with what, a 2 outer? He doesn't have a draw, he's solid passive. Curtains is right, if you think he's on a draw you're deluding yourself. Basically, at this point, you're hoping you have a lot of split outs or that he's pulling a rare play.

[ QUOTE ]
trout_lips

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so rather than 'solid, passive' your read is '2+2'. That changes it to one of two things:

1)He knows who you are and is playing you, not the cards, in which case you should call down regardless

2)He's one of the 99% of 2+2'ers who don't vary their game and eight table anyway, in which case I muck this like it's radioactive.