A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings

[flyingmoose]

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well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

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Thats the most disheartening post ever.

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I guess that's as disheartening as a post about a guy who made $21000+ can be...

[Irieguy]

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well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

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Lacky's game is probably more similar to mine than anyone else's on this forum. We think about the same, and perform about the same(though he does it as his exclusive living, which is much more difficult.) I haven't played as many $55's as he, but my ROI is within a percentage point.

I have had a run of 477 SNGs at breakeven. I've had 26 OOTM in a row. I've thrown a 40 buy-in party.

I'll post a graph later if I can figure out how to do it.

Irieguy

[psyduck]

TWENTY SIX?

[lacky]

plus $4500+ in rakeback [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

but yeah, varience is a bitch, and if you dont understand that it can really mess with your head. Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long, makes for a crappy week or two. I have no idea how a recreational player makes it through something like that, i suspect they don't and give up.

The truth is you can go a long time in any type of poker not winning and still not be doing anything wrong.

Steve

[microbet]

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Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long

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Not long at all. Your whole 2700 would have taken less than 10 weeks.

[Vetstadium]

I have logged about 2500 $33 SNG's only a 15% ROI 8 tabling. I keep track in blocks of 500 just finished my lowest ROK for a 500 block 7.5% (have yet to have a negative ROI over 500 block. Longest OTM was 18, most ITM around 15 (a crazy day 10 of those firsts). Every time I have a bad OTM streak I second guess myself should I play any more etc etc. We all hate losing even if we know we will win in long run. My biggest accomplishment I made as a player was not to play other games to try to get money back fast like 10/20 limit in my beginning days that was my biggest downfall. If I lose couple hundred one day it no longer makes me go on tilt.

[Irieguy]

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TWENTY SIX?

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Yes, and it was really f'd up the way it happened. I had played 474 SNGs and done really well. I was going to finish my set of 500 and move up a level the next day. I was going to do this regardless of my results. I then lost all 26 of my final SNGs.

I moved up anyways and smoked the $109's with a 26% ROI over my first 200. Made the 0-for-26 a little easier to swallow.

Irieguy

[lacky]

yep, but in reality there's tons of play at other levels, limit from 3/6 to 15/30, nl ring up to nl $1000, hundreds of mtt's, and some omaha h/l. So the 2700 is really over about 1.5 years.

Steve

Perhaps your excitment of doing so well + Your goal to need to reach 500 sngs + Your increased confidence = Some poor decisions on the final strech.

Of course, I am sure you didn't make mistakes in every game but this may have accounted for a portion of the bad string??

Cheers

[1C5]

I am now in the middle of a 20+ downswing. If I had a downswing like this when I first started, I would have NEVER EVER played poker again.

I am just shaking my head. I now have 8 4ths in a row and really feel like breaking something. Like Irie said in the past, I can now predict the exact last card on the river that is needed to break my AA. And when you expect AA to lose to 77 and 45o, you know you are starting to feel *it*.