Ugly Bubble situation

[45suited]

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Not pushing the KTs is horrible.

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There is no way that this can be made as an absolute statement. Horrible is way too strong a word. I could buy "questionable" (but I still like his fold, actually). You are way overplaying your hand with the use of the word "horrible". Seriously.

[schwza]

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I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push.

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this is becoming my new pet peeve. if you don't say range you entered, this is as useful as saying "my calculator says it's a push."

[Nottom]

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My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.


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My strategy was not to fold into the money, my strategy was about trying to maximize my EV which just happened to involve a lot of folding. On the last hand I decided to call and try and help knock out the shorty, I explained my reasoning here in a previous post, although it may have been a mistake

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Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

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Agasint "any two" its a clear call. I didn't put him on any two since he should expect to get a call from one of us the vast majority of the time. Therefore he needs a hand with some showdown value. Against even the top 50% of hands its a pretty poor call ICM-wise.

[GtrHtr]

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My strategy was not to fold into the money, my strategy was about trying to maximize my EV which just happened to involve a lot of folding. On the last hand I decided to call and try and help knock out the shorty, I explained my reasoning here in a previous post, although it may have been a mistake

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I respect your saying this but it doesn't appear to be the case based on the HH. After folding the previous hands it prolly should've become your strategy in the last hand.

[curtains]

Sometimes you have to grovel for 3rd. I don't see anything wrong with doing so in this situation. Also I think folding the KTs is fine. If the BB is good this is especially so, as I call with a ridiculous range getting over 2-1 (aka I will call you with 98o). If this is the case it's clearly correct to fold your KTd, as it's very important to get 3rd place.

Why isn't anyone on this forum willing to just grovel theyre way into 3rd place sometimes? It's extremely important to make it into the money, and it happens quite often where you should play extremely tight and just hope to get third, even giving up all your folding equity along the way.

[schwza]

i think the KTs should be a push. there's a lot of value that ICM ignores in avoiding the spot you wound up in, where there are two close short-stacks. it means that both of you will wind up folding in a lot of spots you don't want to. hugely +EV for the other two stacks, so pretty bad for you. it's close though. i'd fold K7s, for example.

i'd call the AT hand, too. if you fold and the BB calls and doubles up, your chances of making the money are pretty low, and your chances of getting 2nd+ are quite low. if the BB calls, he's probably ~40-45% to double.

if you call, the BB will only call with a monster. you're way ahead of button's range, who knows that the BB might make a terrible (pot odds-wise) fold. i haven't looked at actual ranges, but i'd guess you're around 60% against button. if you win this hand, you're almost sure to make the money, and could go deeper.

if the BB folds, you're in real bad shape, as you're going to have to fold the next hand (KQ, i like the fold) also to avoid letting the SB fold his SB and take a free shot at the money. if you hadn't gotten the walk in the BB, you'd have had a tough choice: make a horrible (pot odds) fold and have a ~2/3 chance at the money (i'm estimating the shorty has a 1/3 chance of beating you and whichever of the two bigger guys comes in), or risk bubbling when the shorty has T60.

continuing to fold when short is like a mutually assured destruction with the other shorty. AT is good enough to play here, imo. i would fold quickly if i didn't have the shorty covered for this hand, because then when i called he could come in with junk.

your k7s hand is clearly right, imo.

[curtains]

btw I hate your call with K7s in the SB...but these situations are not my specialty. However I would fold and let the shortstack try to win 2 hands in a row, and still save myself some chips for the BB if things go wrong.

[curtains]

btw one thing to note about this situation. You are far and away going for 3rd place. 1st or 2nd is a distant distant dream at this point. I think your ATo fold is just fine, and I suspect the math would prove me right.

No one should be using the phrase "go for first" in this scenario, as we are so clearly going for third place. Of course if a hand presents itself we will play it, but I don't think any clearly playable situations arose.

Please note that my most common money finish is first place. But you have to use reasonable judgement. When you have 700 and so does the shortstack, and both big stacks have 4000+, you are almost always correct in doing whatever you can to secure 3rd place and thinking of 1st+2nd later.

[Nottom]

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btw I hate your call with K7s in the SB...but these situations are not my specialty. However I would fold and let the shortstack try to win 2 hands in a row, and still save myself some chips for the BB if things go wrong.

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I'd like to hope no one here is a calling all-in with a marginal hand with a shorter BB who is already all-in specialist.

[curtains]

Yeah I did mean this situation precisely. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If the BB had MORE chips I would call...like if they were allin with 380 I would call, because then if they survive you are in more trouble and you have some hand value.

I don't know for sure if that's correct but It's what I feel should be right.

Also maybe your call in the game was fine I really don't know. Because it has to go 1/2/3 in order of BB/BUTTON/YOU. I wonder what the odds of that are based on a random hand for the BB. I've never gotten to the math for that situation and compared it to the situation that occurs by just folding the SB.