River plan?

[zephed]

Opponent is a TAG. He's about a 24% vpip, 15% pfr player. He 3-bet me once with KQs (I was raising a lot, and I doubt that's his normal play). Haven't seen him get out of line postflop.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ?.

Bet/calls? Checks? Bet/folds?

Final Pot: 5.16 BB

If he's got an ace, I'm ahead of A6, A4, A3, A2. All of these are likely, although a TAG may fold a tiny unsuited ace preflop.

Of course, if he's got a club draw he's not calling without a good piece of the board.

Behind to: AK-AJ (unlikely), AT, A8, A7 (unlikely), A5 (maybe).

I'm ahead of any jack, but I'm not sure he would call me down with that unless he had a good club draw.

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
AK-AJ (unlikely), AT, A8, A7 (unlikely), A5 (maybe)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you get check-raised by a tag on the flop or turn by all these holdings except for AT. It sure seems to me like he has the K or Q of clubs in his hand. How liberal is his blind defense? If he's pretty tight, then QcJ or KcJ, maybe even JTc, are his most likely holdings and he might call your river bet with those hands. I like a bet/call for your action. If he waited until the river to check/raise a strong hand, I think you want to see it.