Question for forum - a hand from a live multi-table

[Stoneii]

Hi

Perhaps this belongs on B&M forum but most of my reading is done here so forgive me if it's misplaced.

A hand from a game earlier this evening in our local poker club - it was a $200 buy-in with 1 £200 rebuy ( a bigger game than normal). We are down to 12 left and blinds are 1k/2k (or .75/1.5 - not 100% sure), I have 5k left after posting blinds, 4 were getting paid (it was originally going to be a winner take all satellite for vegas trip but not enough entries) and 5 get points in our league (winner of which will get paid entry to WSOP next year - 2006).

Anyway, I'm in BB with 99. UTG+1 moves all-in for approx 3.5k, MP comes over top all-in for another 1.5k. Button then moves in over the top for another 1k.

Players reads would be as follows - 1st player was all-in and I'm almost sure he didn't even pay much attention to his hand, 2 has been playing reasonable hands but will overplay a good but not top notch ace and player 3 is the tightest of all.

Do you call just about all-in here believing you're behind, for the chance to set you up as a strong chip contender for final table or get knocked out if u miss or do u pass and wait?

Many thanks - interested in more than a pass/call answer but more detailed thoughts.

stoneii

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
it was a $200 buy-in with 1 £200 rebuy

[/ QUOTE ]

woh, a mixed currency game. crazy

[deepsquat]

I thik this is an automatic fold. Its been raised then re-raised twice, no way i call with a middle pair.

[crookedhat99]

This could figured out mathermatistically. You have an %11 chance of set-ing you're getting what? 3.?-1 on your chips. except you have 2.5 blinds left, and uhh thats nothing, plus 2 players out isn't going to make any difference, and the triple up will make a difference but eek still i'd fold. And then push the next hand with any 2.

[Jackarama_]

good fold [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Matt Finkelstein]

I don't thin it's as simple as set value to win, there is a chance 99 could be good.

I can envision a scenario whereby you only have 2 overs to dodge with the aces almost canceled out.

First player - Ax

second -- any pocket pair

third - AK

So you're about 15-20% to more than triple up - actually - if you lose it appears that you'll still have 1000 left to post a small blind and get lucky. If you fold, you just have 4000 left - and the tables are short and getting shorter. Also - are the tables consolidating at 10 or 9? that could affect my decision.

My point is - if you fold - you will likely be a big dog to "only" double up, and then you'll still be in push or fold mode. We really don't know the other stack sizes, chip leades ect.

Sitting in my living room, i can't say I'd call, but calling looks better here than if I was holding those cards knowing the button is tight. Then again, AK is a great spot for that button, and you wouldn't mind, given that he'll likely only have 5 outs, possibly 4. (I can discount JJ and 1010 - given his tightness and that two others are already in) If the first pusher has KJ, you can add onother 3.

I hink the key is the second pusher.

Whether or not you called, you obviously saw their holdings. Results?

[Stoneii]

Results?

The tables would consolidate as the result if this hand (10 players to final table) and I agonised over this. I actually didn't fear the 2nd callers all-in at all, it was definitely player 3's move as I was absolutely convinced the player would not do this on the hope/chase. I put him on AA-QQ, with JJ being a possibility but he would definitely be capable of passing a high ace here (I have played with this player on several occasions and he is not a man to throw it about shall we say [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

Anyway, as i figured it, and the reason i tortured myself for a while, I was getting about 4-1 pot odds, I truly believed I would be going in 2nd best (at best) and the chances of me making a set by the river are just over 4-1.

So it came down to a gamble decision, did I want to rumble and have good shout at final table if I got lucky, or limp in to final table assuming player 3 took it down.

I folded......

Player 1 turned over KJo, player 2 AQo and player 3 AA.....

Flop was...............

9T9 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Anyway, it's all good. I limped to final table and, would u believe it, the poker gods took pity on me, it's not often you can say that TWICE my 23o in BB held up all-in (flopped a 3 both times to overcards - wooohooo).

I went on to win it (luckbag [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

Thanks to those who responded

stoneii