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Old 09-24-2004, 04:39 PM
Leavenfish Leavenfish is offline
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Default Probabilities and Charts...and reality

A post on another thread (that I can not seem to find at the moment) has lead me to start thinking about something again…maybe I’m just a little too bored at the moment….

http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm

Tables such as these show 10 players and how any given hole cards stand up if played to a show down. How do the percentages change when you consider that in a real game, half these people may drop pre-flop? Are there charts to reflect this? People are not totally stupid and eventually they begin to realize that certain cards are far from profitable (though many pre-flop choices will still remain suspect), others less so and still that others seem to do well.

Let me see if I can be a little more clear:

You are dealt A5s. If everyone played till showdown, you would win on average 14.5% of the pots. The math on that is indisputable. However when 5 people in total see the flop, the chart would indicate that your average winning percentage goes up to 22.2%

That makes sense as well, if in good part because you have less contestants; but is that not only for a 5 handed game?

If one takes into account that the pre-flop dropped hands tend to be the ‘garbage’ hands and those hands which chose to see the flop would tend to fare a little better than normal…is your A5s really expected to pull down 22.2% of the pots by the time the dealer is ready to flop the cards?

I am just thinking thru this as I type (obviously), so bear with me. It would seem to me that at this point prior to the flop, it largely depends upon your opposition and their standards . It would therefore seem to me that the better the hand you hold, that your chances might be as good or better than stated…while the worse hands you chose to see the flop with would tend to actually win fewer pots than stated. This affects the real percentage of pots you will pull down with A5s.

Perhaps that is all true and makes sense and many reading this are saying “Duh!”…but I see people throwing around numbers such as those in this table all the time to justify their position as if every pre-flop decision can be explained by the numbers in said charts; and I really think that the numbers are only a general guideline. A VERY GOOD guideline to point you in the right direction, but I do not see how, if I am right, people can get so bent out of shape about the EV of this or that play-- debating the merits of a close call, maybe playing something like a pair of 6’s in middle position—so you raise or call with X number of players in in a game that might be anywhere along the scale of Loose/Passive to Tight/Agressive. It seems to me there are too many variable to split hairs so finely as some would.

Assuming I am not totally off base here, does anyone have any idea (or do charts already exist)as to how to go about tweaking such a chart as this to show—not only the before the flop odds but also some good guesstimate as to what the percentages would be with 3,4,5, etc opponents given the texture of different games? Is that even possible?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

---Leavenfish
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Old 09-24-2004, 05:15 PM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Default Re: Probabilities and Charts...and reality

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming I am not totally off base here, does anyone have any idea (or do charts already exist)as to how to go about tweaking such a chart as this to show—not only the before the flop odds but also some good guesstimate as to what the percentages would be with 3,4,5, etc opponents given the texture of different games? Is that even possible??

[/ QUOTE ]

Though I haven't seen one, it should be fairly easy (but time-consuming) to generate such a chart using a program like Poker Calculator (though I haven't used it, I think PokerStove would work as well) that allows you set the number of players and a range of hands for each. These would still be only showdown results.

If you also wanted to incorporate effects of play, you would have to use a program like Turbo Texas Hold'em. However, many people don't believe TTH play is realistic.

Ironically, the closer you get to a "realistic" simulation, the more questionable the conclusions.
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