2 Semi-Bluff Turn Raises

[bigpooch]

It's a clear error in terms of EV in BBs. Even if exactly
one opponent is drawing to the same straight, there is also
a small chance that by pairing on an ace the hero can win.
So you can consider there to be approximately 13 outs out of
46. In addition, you will also gain more EV if it gets
capped 4-way, so not failing to raise is an error of more
than 0.15 BB and so it's still a clear error (a "whopper" to
borrow from backgammon lingo). On the other hand, there is
a tiny chance that these players will put in two bets cold
on the turn and surrender for another two! (But not in this
day and age! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[bigpooch]

1. Capping on the flop is correct.

2. You made the best EV play on the turn by capping.

[Senor Choppy]

This is being completely results oriented, but notice the river action where his opponents both folded after he capped. It seems clear that in this particular hand that the cap on the turn cost him money.

[elysium]

hi spicy

thank-you. the reason that my posts are so long spicy is that i myself really do not understand why a certain type play is right or wrong when i begin a post. to find out why, i get into a dissecting mode that has a continuum to the molecule level. GOD gave me an ability to rip a hand apart, and look into the little funnies that are squiggling around at a layer too deep to realize at the first. often, my posts begin advising in one direction, but then, upon dissection, an unthoughtout complication arises, and i reverse and advise in the other direction, dissect of course, and, if there are no complications, i post.

actually, many of my posts start out offering the wrong advice. i'm getting better though. in this original poster's situation, i knew that the check-raise semi-bluff was wrong. i learned, though, upon further review, that the check-raise semi is a drive-out raise; something i've never considered before in that type terminology. i previously thought that you needed to have some reasonable grounds for believing that the raise would fold-out, giving you the pot right there; but that also, coincidently, fits the description of a drive-out raise. and i will remember this. also, how the hand washes out negatively between those times you win the pot, and those times that you are reraised, has been something that i kinda knew implicitly, but not real explicitly. finally, i had previously only thought that not check-raise semi-bluffing was correct in this spot because when you have top pair, only a weaker hand will fold. obviously, you don't mind allowing the weaker hand to stay in provided that there aren't a lot of them staying in. but what i never really considered was the paradox that occurs when 3 opponents are involved in the hand on a draw infested board. if you are given an opportunity to check-raise semi-bluff when the LP bets out on the weakness shown, well, the MP's have got to be drawing thin or are very weak. with top pair, you should betout, not check-raise semi-bluff. of course, of course. the reason; you can't check-raise semi-bluff on the turn in this hand because there is no value in driving the MP's out. so, since all that you can possibly do is betout or check-call, you must betout.

and that's why my posts are so long. when i first began that post, i didn't understand how imperitive it was to betout instead of doing something else. i also didn't know or even have a clue, that with 3 opponents the check-raise semi is clearly wrong.

you know what i mean spice?

[astroglide]

1: cap the flop. checkraising the turn is pointless because nobody is folding. if you're going to call the river just bet it.

2: i would check the flop and hope to checkraise it multiway. threebetting the turn against a TAG is not wise because his most likely hand is a set (a ten would have raised the flop).

[SpicyF]

I think I know what you mean, atleast now that you have dissected it for me =) I hope I can meet you in real life some day as I'm a keen listener and I'm sure you would have lots of insightful ideas and facts to share with us all....

Stay cool

[SpicyF]

You actually remind me of another person that I've played quite a big agains't, and that I've also met in Vegas. Since I dont know our real name this just might be the case [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]