Who Will Win The Election?

[Nepa]

I forgot Tenn.

[Stu Pidasso]

PinnacleSports

Party to win 2004 US Presidential Election
Republican -117
Democratic +107


Stu

[theBruiser500]

wouldn't it make sense for a huge democratic turnout in florida this election?

[CCass]

I am beginning to sound like a broken record. There is no way Kerry wins TN. As I have posted elsewhere, there are no Kerry ads running on local TV stations, no radio spots (I am in the Nashville area), nothing. The Kerry campaign has written off TN, with good reason. Any poll that show TN as slightly Kerry is flawed.

I live in a county that is fairly typical of Tennessee (from a political point of view). All of our local elected officials are Dems, our state Rep and state Senator are both Dems, and our US Congressman is a Dem. Bush will carry this county by a 10% margin. People here (and in TN in general) aren't going to vote for someone that is perceived to be liberal. Gore didn't win here, neither will Kerry.

As for my prediction about the election, I think the two candidates will be within 1% of each other in the popular vote, and I think the electoral college will come down to Ohio. From a purely mathematical point of view, Bush has to win Fla and Ohio.

[Nepa]

It not only ads that win elections.

Tenn. Polls

[Nepa]

All Colorado to the list of battleground states.

Colorado polls

[CCass]

My point about ads is that if the Kerry team thought TN was in play, then they would be trying to sway the voters. They don't, so they aren't.

I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

[Nepa]

I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

One point though, if Kerry does win TN, Kerry win by a landside.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

One point though, if Kerry does win TN, Kerry win by a landside.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Bush must win the south (including NC). Also, if Kerry wins Florida (and no other southern state), I think he wins the electoral college by a landslide, and probably the popular vote as well (in todays world of partisan politics, I define a landslide as ~6%).

[tolbiny]

Or would it make sense that a frustrated group of people who feel they have been screwed over in the past and have a legitimate reason for believing that their vote "means nothing" will not turn out at all.