Challanging Ed Miller's Criticism of Lee Jones

[BeerMoney]

PokerJo looks cute.

[Mike Haven]

i'll try to put it in more simple terms for you

what you have calculated is that if there are two random hands against KK after an Axx flop there is a 24% chance of at least one of them having at least one Ace in them

the easiest way to check this is to say that there are 44 ways out of 47 of there not being an Ace dealt to your "block of four cards", 43 ways out of 46 of there not being an Ace dealt to your block of four, 42 out of 45, and 41 out of 44

to work out the chances (or probability) of there not being an Ace dealt to your block of four we write the above as:

44/47 x 43/46 x 42/45 x 41/44 x 100 = 76%

therefore the chance of at least one Ace being dealt to your block of four is 100% - 76% = 24%

this is what you calculated and with which i agree, when you are looking at a general poker situation, which may or may not be the case discussed in Ed's book, which i have not yet had the pleasure of reading

however, where you are making your mistake is that because of your strange and uncalled for animosity towards me you are overlooking or choosing to ignore the fact that originally, for the purpose of my calculations, i stated that if a player received an Ax he would call - i repeat - if a player received an Ax he would call

seven players did NOT call and therefore there is a discarded block of fourteen cards IN THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO in which you know that there are no Aces (whether or not in real life you would ever be able to be this certain is irrelevant for the purposes of this academic debate)

therefore your calculation for your mix-and-match scenario where two random hands are competing after the flop with seven players having folded non-Ax hands pre-flop (not my original scenario) should be written as 100 - (30/33 x 29/32 x 28/31 x 27/30 x 100)

= 33%

asssuming you have followed and understood the above, please go back to my original post, (with an open mind, if i may be so bold as to ask!), and you should be able to understand it a lot better

[Godfather80]

Ed-

As a 6th, 7th, and 8th grade Math teacher, I want to thank you for being flexible enough of mind to be able to present a concept in a number of ways in order to best teach it. Your presentation of the hard math followed by some more intuitive examples of this math in practice have not only helped me become a halfway decent poker player, but also a more effective teacher. The book is great.

Okay, enough ass kissing.

Godfather

[Ed Miller]

As a 6th, 7th, and 8th grade Math teacher, I want to thank you for being flexible enough of mind to be able to present a concept in a number of ways in order to best teach it. Your presentation of the hard math followed by some more intuitive examples of this math in practice have not only helped me become a halfway decent poker player, but also a more effective teacher. The book is great.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

BTW, I hope to spend some time teaching high school math and physics one of these days. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[John Biggs]

Okay, tentatively I agree with you. And I apologize for treating you like a total probability moron.

What got my dander up (as well as my interest) was when you told Ed Miller that it doesn't matter how many players see the flop. It obviously does matter, as both your calculations and mine demonstrate. Have you changed your mind on this?