Challanging Ed Miller's Criticism of Lee Jones

[Leavenfish]

I do not know how to include a link...but this is concerning Ed's "Critiques" of Lee Jones' book found at: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;o=&vc=1

(Quote)
1. Page 67: You have pocket kings in a 3-way pot. The flop comes ace-high. He recommends that you bet on the flop (typically good advice). But then he says that if someone calls, the caller probably has at least an ace or better. In low-limit games, that simply isn't true. Yes, someone will sometimes have an ace, but often they will call with any pair or any draw. You can't assume someone has an ace simply because it exists on the flop and he called your bet. This is really a point of critical importance for low-limit games. (Quote)

First, The fundamental thought throughout your book is that at the lower limits, people stay in with I’ll equipped hands (Ace/little for example) and follow them to the river far too often…hence you can make money against them with proper play. Indeed, this is the underlying thought of nearly all books in regards to the lower limits.

I find TWO problems with your criticism cited above in regards to Lee’s admonition that if someone calls, the caller probably has at least an ace or better:

ONE: I simply do not see how your specifying that, “In low-limit games, that simply isn’t true” can be correct. The odds of someone being dealt an Ace in any 10 handed game—regardless of the limit you are playing at—are exactly the same and I believe that is what, close to 80%?

TWO: Given that the odds are about 80%, AND given the FACT that many more people play Ace + any card at the lower limits and at any position (I know this from Party Poker all too well)…well, that does tend to indicate that indeed someone may well have you beat at that point. Yes? And this doesn’t even include the small percentage of time that one of your opponents has pocket aces….

I find the conclusion inescapable that indeed it is probable (CERTAINLY in comparision to higher limits) that someone was dealt at least an Ace in the pocket and your “sometimes” remark is demonstrably untrue while Lee's "probably" is much more likely to be correct. I do not know about you but I would tend to look at anything close to 80% as indeed “probable”. Furthermore, if I remember Ken Warren correctly, if an individual is dealt an Ace preflop, there is a 75% chance that another player at a 10 handed table will also have been dealt an Ace pre-flop…so, your KK may well be the third best hand after the flop in question!

I am sorry, but I do not see how in the given example where an Ace has in fact appeared on the flop, that you could criticize Lee Jones for his observation, which I believe is simply correct. Granted, in the example, only 3 of the 10 players see the flop…but, we already know that at Low Limit Holdem, it may well be that you with your two Kings are facing one if not two people with Aces…and you are behind in the hand.

[Easy E]

surely you jest.

Monsters under the Bed, Inc.

[Leavenfish]

No, you completely misundestand. I am talking about the probability of someone having an Ace PRE-FLOP--20 (of 52) cards dealt, 4 aces. The flop happens AFTER everyone has their two cards and the fact that an Ace flopped is irrelevant to what has happened pre-flop...it is simply the situation that exist in the hand criticism by Ed.

[Randy Burgess]

If you've got your pocket Kings, it's a family pot, and an Ace falls, you have some reason to be cautious. But three-way is totally different.

It would be the same with any big pocket pair vs. a single overcard on the flop - say you've got JJ, raise preflop and get two callers, and the board comes with a Queen. Obviously you bet. If no one plays back at you, you bet the turn too assuming it's not scary.

[Beavis68]

I gotta say this gave me some problems too, there is almost always an ace out there, and guys with even A-J wont always bet them.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
ONE: I simply do not see how your specifying that, “In low-limit games, that simply isn’t true” can be correct. The odds of someone being dealt an Ace in any 10 handed game—regardless of the limit you are playing at—are exactly the same and I believe that is what, close to 80%?


[/ QUOTE ]

We have more information in this problem. An Ace already has hit the board, leaving only 3 Aces in the deck. Use Bayes' Theorem to figure out the how the percentage of another Ace being in a player's hand falls.

Secondly, Ed's criticism is spot on. Just because someone called your bet doesn't mean he has an Ace. For what it's worth, I've seen people call down in this situation with pocket 2s, or 2nd or 3rd pair. If he happens to have an Ace, so be it.

[skp]

I offer no opinion on who is right as bewteen Lee and Ed as I have not read either book nor have I really followed teh debate on this board.

But what happens on the flop is not irrelevant to what may happened preflop. You now have more informatio to figure out teh probability of preflop holdings. To take a simple example: If the flop comes with three aces, do you still believe that it has no effect on the probability of someone being dealt an Ace preflop (leaving aside the question of whether that person called preflop or mucked).

Granted, we are not talking about an AAA flop but even on an Axx flop, the chances of someone being dealt an Ace preflop is lower than what it would be on an Aceless flop.

[MaxPower]

The more important question is how much will you lose when someone has an ace and how much will you win when no one has an ace. Take into account the dead money in the pot and all the bets you will win when they don't have an ace. Then look at the bets you will lose by betting the turn against someone with an ace.

Its not a matter of the percentage of the time you will win. It is about expected value.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not a matter of the percentage of the time you will win. It is about expected value.

[/ QUOTE ]


correct.
if percentage-of-wins was all that mattered then we should all be betting as much as possible all the way through to the river.

i win fewer pots at a 10-handed table (7-8%) then most of my opponents (who are mostly higher than 10%).

[Mike Haven]

Bayes