AQo, need some river adice (x-post from mid limts)

[brettbrettr]

I don't know much about BB's play, I have only mined hands on him. He's 27/5/1, goes to sd 37% of the time, wins 48% of the time, and doesn't fold blinds very often at all.

If I hadn't picked up the gutshot on the turn, I'd probably have bet-folded. What's your tiver plan?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bets.

[meep_42]

I don't see the decision here. You're chopping with any other Ace, so raising is feeding the rake, giving money to his AJ or random 6, folding out his bluff, or making a bet on his K that he was odd enough to bet the river with.

I think he's got AJ/6x a lot more than he's got a non-A hand he'll call a raise with, and I don't think I can fold with the board looking choppy like that.

-d

[cassady]

isn't this an easy raise?

I think seeing the turn play as BB missing a check/raise is just seeing monsters.

[nfscreech]

I like a raise/fold here.

[silkyslim]

id call. your kicker doesnt play [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[SackUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see the decision here. You're chopping with any other Ace, so raising is feeding the rake, giving money to his AJ or random 6, folding out his bluff, or making a bet on his K that he was odd enough to bet the river with.

I think he's got AJ/6x a lot more than he's got a non-A hand he'll call a raise with, and I don't think I can fold with the board looking choppy like that.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

what hands do you think he calls a raise with? obviously he is folding any bluff made. The only hand that you beat would be some K hand which will account for a small percentage of hands.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
id call. your kicker doesnt play [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, well, like, really, really important.

The fact that we have no value in a raise against others As, are losing to a couple of A high hands, are losing to many missed turn check-raises, and will often only encourage worses hand (Ks, etc...) to fold if we raise the river, means that I kind of like just calling.

One other thing to think about is that a lot of the hands that we'd hope to call a river raise (Ks basically though maybe Js) often will not bet this river because the A is so likely to have hit you. (Even poor players have enough of an intuitive sense for hand-reading to recognize that...)

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
id call. your kicker doesnt play [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is key. I wish I'd have seen it in real time.