how many bets are saved by giving up on bluffs?

[dankhank]

so i've been wondering lately about how often i give up on bluffs and semi-bluffs, and if i do it too much. oftentimes in a full ring game i'll find myself on the river, sitting there with AT or whatever, facing a dry board and a BB who has called all my bets so far and checked to me on the river. if i bet and get him to fold then i'll win a 5BB pot, but if he calls me (which i fully expect him too....because people usually call let's face it) then i've blown off yet another precious BB. a full 100 hands of effort.

i really have a hard time evaluating when 5BBs are worth a 1BB risk in these spots. because first of all you don't know what your opponent has (bottom pair for example), second of all you don't know how much respect they give you, and thirdly you don't know if they're going to call you with bottom pair or not. some players will call you if they're in a certain mood, and not call in others. it is just a big mystery when i throw that last bet in there, and a lot of times i check behind instead, get shown garbage, and wonder if i could've pushed them off.

so i'm wondering what other people are thinking when they're in this spot, or in a similar spot on the turn. usually i'm thinking "man this guy is an idiot with trash but he's going to call me anyway....so don't just give away a BB like that champ."

what i dream of being able to think is, "well this guy knows for a fact that when i bet on the river i'm strong, so therefore i can bluff here with impunity." but i don't know how to adjust my style and mainpulate the metagame to get to that point. wondering how others approach the subject.

[Dazarath]

Most of the time when someone calls the first 2 bets with bottom pair, they're planning on seeing showdown. You'd need to be against a thinking TAG for them to lay it down to the 3rd bet after calling 2. It'd have to be someone who could say to themselves, "that opponent would be willing to fire 2 shots on a bluff, but he most likely won't fire a 3rd". Or you'd need an opponent who could put you on a range of hands and could lay down to possible scare cards. A lot of donks, if they flop top pair 7s, they're going to see showdown even if you raised preflop and the turn/river come A/K.

[sweetjazz]

I think, "Among the hands that villain could hold that I cannot beat, will he fold more than 16% of them?" If my estimate is that yes he will, then I bet. If my estimate is no he won't, then I check behind.

Then I stay at peace with my decision after the hand is showndown. I look at the results solely to use the information to make a more-informed decision the next time I am against said opponent.

I try to never think about "gee I lost a whole BB with the bluff" or "man I could have picked up 5 BBs if I had just pulled the trigger." Because there's no way in advance you can be sure of what BB has or what he is going to do -- all you can do is rely on your understanding of the game and your observations to this point to make the correct decision based on that available info.