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#1
12-29-2005, 03:43 AM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best: [ QUOTE ] The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here. [/ QUOTE ] Not saying that you're wrong, but I'm not yet convinced. Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much. I agree that it is most likely that UTG is full of [censored]. But 90%+, I don't know. And what do we do if 3-bet? I can't fold so basically then we are losing 3 bets. I think the question for me is, do we win 4 bets often enough to overcome the times that we lose 3? Maybe so, but I'm still pondering. Either way, I don't think this is as obvious as you say. I may come around though, don't give up on me yet. 
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#2
12-29-2005, 12:54 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
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Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much. [/ QUOTE ] I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time
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#3
12-29-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much. [/ QUOTE ] I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time [/ QUOTE ] If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is. Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range...
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#4
12-29-2005, 02:05 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much. [/ QUOTE ] I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time [/ QUOTE ] If that's true, then I certainly join your camp. But, 70%, really? He cold-called 3 bets pre-flop - I think a large percentage of the time he's got Ax and no pair, will he really call two bets on the river with that? We might even lose him if he's just got a 9, Dids said "calling station" but we don't really know just how bad he is. Basically I think we can say he will always call 2 with a K, sometimes with a 9, and rarely with no pair. Is that fair? So, I just don't know if this adds up to the 70% range... [/ QUOTE ] he called 3 cold PF, that screams PP or Big ace, hes done nothing but call multiple bets post flop, he isnt going to suddenly wake up and realize his hand sucks now. He also is always calling 2 if he has any K and prolly a big part of the time with a 9. If he just has a big ace that called the turn with a flush draw, hes prolly folding for 1 bet. either way it doesnt matter, you should be raising this HU vs UTG, the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better.
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#5
12-29-2005, 02:13 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
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you should be raising this HU vs UTG [/ QUOTE ] i agree with this [ QUOTE ] the fact youve got 1 more player in who likes to call just makes it all the mo better. [/ QUOTE ] hm. ok i can buy this. [ QUOTE ] The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB. [/ QUOTE ] I pondered this one for a while. Of course the first sentence is true. I think I've been convinced that the second sentence is true. And fizzle, thanks for writing out the equation, great work. You guys have won me over.
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#7
12-29-2005, 02:25 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much. [/ QUOTE ] I dont get why poeople think this? button is going to call the 2 bets here prolly 70% of the time [/ QUOTE ] Are Party players really this dumb or are you guys playing micro limits? Yes there was crazy action preflop and he called three cold. Everyone slows down on the turn and there are a lot of loose passives that give up on the river. I think facing him with two cold will scare him away the majority of the time while calling here will get him to put an extra bet in the pot.
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#8
12-29-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play
Yes they're really this dumb. A big K will call this always. QQ-TT will call this > 80% of the time by a guy like this. A 9 will call a lot. He'll sometimes fold, but a lot of the hands he's folding is a lone spade and something like QJ or JT that missed.
Again, you can't guarantee he's overcalling, either. So even if he folds faced with two, the one BB you get from UTG is worth it.
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