JJ, do we continue on the turn?

[jba]

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@jba, will we call the river when the board pairs? If so, don't we only have 3 outs for two pairs that we counterfeit but it commits us to another bb on the river?


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I mention the two pair hands not because of the hidden outs aspect but only to say you should not be as concerned about chopping up a straight. i don't think we should call any board pairing river card.


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We have reverse implied odds of calling when we hit our out and it isn't good, so does this bust up a lot of our outs?


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okay when we hit a tainted straight we are going to call and lose a bet some % of the time but I really don't think it's even 50% but for brevity let's say it is so. so 25% of time time we hit we essentially get neutral implied odds, but 75% of the time we can be pretty sure UTG is going to pay us off at least one bet, the guy likes his hand.

right there I am only talking about our straight outs... the set outs are obviously tainted as well, but again I think we are at least close to neutral implied odds there. overall I believe our implied odds are positive though I grant you it is marginal.

[milesdyson]

also keep in mind that because we have two jacks, the likelihood that he has JT is cut in half.

[deception5]

Since this player is a 0% pfr, you also have to consider AA-QQ as well as 99/55/JT and possibly Q9/Q8/98 and very occasionally 88 (since some players cannot lay down pocket pairs, especially this type). Your straight outs are good very often, especially where you have 2 of the jacks so there are only 8 combos of JT left (compared to 21 overpair/set combos on the flop). A rivered jack will even win it for you against anything but QQ/JT (unless of course the other player has a T).

[Guruman]

--blind response--

At first glance it looks like you're safe to draw to the gutshot.

Upon further review though, it seems like UTG will have JT here a significant portion of the time. He's very passive, and a turn checkraise vs two is a very aggressive move.

If he slowplayed QQ or 99 you'd have a chance. Ditto if he caught on 88, Q8, or 89. JT looks awfully likely here though, and he only has to have it 10% of the time to make a call here incorrect. I'd guess he has it over 30%.

Interesting though because we do have odds to draw, we just don't know if hitting will do us any good.

If you catch a T on the river, do you raise when he leads? What if you catch a J instead?

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If you catch a T on the river, do you raise when he leads? What if you catch a J instead?

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I dont think i am raising either river. I'd need to decide when I call the turn what hand I think he's on and play it like that on the river.

[beachbum]

Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

[jba]

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Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

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yep, but it jacks up implied odds on our T outs

[milesdyson]

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Nobody mentioned 67 yet so I will. This taints your 2 set outs as well.

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true, he could also have TT meaning we are really drawing slim!

67 probably calls a lot less on this flop but still a possibility.

I raise a T river, I call a J river.

True

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is 35/0/ (1.1 postflop aggression)
SB is 38/7.8/ (0.5 postflop aggression)

Prima 1/2 6 max
Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bet, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, SB folds.

I was getting something like 10:1 and wasn't closing the action. I didn't think SB would fold or raise so 11:1 is pretty safe estimate.

Does UTG have JT here often enough for our call here to be incorrect?

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*Grunch*

I do think we have to make the decision on the turn. Given the action on earlier streets, there's no reason to think he's improved on the river. Also, sb has shown no aggression so getting raised on the river shouldn't factor into our decision - so the way you played it, a call seems in order.

But I'm not sure we shouldn't fold on the turn. What is he raising with that doesn't beat us? Flush draw doesn't seem likely, so what makes sense? JT, 89, AQ-QJ, pair of 5s or 9s? QQ seems unlikely.

That's not a lot of hands, but why else is he raising into two players on the turn, esp. when one of them has been agg the whole way?

BTW I never make this play in the heat of battle and end up calling down. Probably one of my many leaks.