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  #1  
Old 06-11-2003, 09:18 AM
pilchard pilchard is offline
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Default Could you fold FH on the river?

Here's a hand I played at a 10$/20$ online game. The game is pretty loose and there are plenty of people out of their depth, just how I like it.

I have 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] on the button. The two other players of note in this hand and are UTG and UTG+1. They tend to be winning players online, they are both a bit loose but tend to read hands pretty well and play accordingly. Having said that I hate the way they both play this hand.

To the action, UTG limps, UTG+1 calls, two others call and I think a raise is in order. I raise and SB,BB and limpers call.

7 Big Bets. Flop K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] .

check, check, UTG bets. UTG+1 calls, two limpers call, I raise. SB and BB folds, UTG and UTG+1 call. Other two fold.

11 Big Bets. Turn is Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]. Do I not like that.
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I check.

River T [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] (yippee).
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises!!!!

I'm virtually certain I'm beat (I'll give my reasons later) but would anybody else fold here? Would anyone raise?
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  #2  
Old 06-11-2003, 10:12 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

id call it.

i definitely wouldnt raise it.

youve represented a small flush the way you played.

unless you know these players wouldnt raise on a 4 flush paired board w/o a FH. but im not conviced yet. but you know them better than us

b
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  #3  
Old 06-11-2003, 10:20 AM
elysium elysium is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

hi pilchard
you should raise here pilchard. you likely have the lead here actually. the only hands that beat you are J9d and AJd, so there is only 1 possible hand that beats yours, if your opponents wouldn't enter in from UTG positions with KT or QT, and you have every reason to believe they wouldn,t. it looks like UTG+ has the second nut flush, and UTG has two pair.

now, the turn checks by both opponents are suspicious on that draw infested board. however, since the possibility of a set is very remote, and there is only one straight flush possible, you certainly beat at least one opponent. the other opponent could have the less than nut flush trying to hit a straight flush, and checking it on the turn because his hand can improve. so you're definately not against a nut flush, that's true, but you are likely against top two pair and a second nut flush.

you must reraise. you may even get the unlikely QT to fold given the frightening board. no you say? a raise would never fold a full-house? pilchard, let me tell you something. on this frightening board a raise or reraise may actually fold a full-house! but don't tell antone. it's a guarded secret.
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  #4  
Old 06-11-2003, 10:52 AM
Clarkmeister Clarkmeister is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

"I'm virtually certain I'm beat (I'll give my reasons later) but would anybody else fold here? Would anyone raise?"

Without giving your reasons, its impossible for us to give you an answer that is relevant to this particular hand. For example UTG+1 raises only with the nuts, thats critical information.

In general, I'd at least call.
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Old 06-11-2003, 10:58 AM
Bama Boy Bama Boy is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

Tc Th also beats him, but I would still raise for the reasons you listed, and call down a re-raise if there was on expecting to be beat...
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  #6  
Old 06-11-2003, 11:45 AM
pilchard pilchard is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

Good point Clark,

My thinking was as follows:

UTG led into most of the field on the flop and then just called my flop raise. He can't have a set, he'd have raised preflop (or reraised my preflop raise) with KK or TT. He's a half decent player so I can only assume he'll play straightforward with this many players on a single suited flop. He probably has two pair, top pair or a high [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]. He'd have reraised with a flush. If he's got a high [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] you'd think it was the A although he could have Qx J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] or K/T x J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img].

The same logic applies to the UTG+1.

Now looking at my screen I thought that it was most likely the UTG had the A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . UTG+1 would raise on the river without the nuts but I just get a feeling that he can beat a flush and if so he beats me.

I placed the cursor over the fold button and wanted to press it. I felt I was beat but what's the old adage about good folds on the river. I called.

Thinking afterwards, the key thing about this hand is that the four flush on the board was all made up of cards 8 and above. If the board had been J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] I think I have an easy call to the raise and would reraise but given that the UTG and UTG+1 although a little loose are still selective in early position, regardless of the result, a fold could be in order.
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  #7  
Old 06-11-2003, 11:58 AM
DanZ DanZ is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

Most players will play KTs and QTs from utg (I usually do, but not always). QTs is unlikely, but KTs sure is. I think the advice to "fold KQs if UTG limps" from a previous post indicates some very extreme views on preflop play that might be worth revisiting.

In a good, loose game, players will be plays "J9s UTG, and anything better". I bet you can tell me where that quoute is from.

I think that one should generally fold on the river. It would be crazy to raise in this spot with less than A of flush, so the only way to beat the raiser is if he has the ace of flush. However, if the raiser has Ax of flush, the bettor has to have a full house, which must be better than yours, 4 tens, or Jd9d.

I think I would fold also.

Dan Z.
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  #8  
Old 06-11-2003, 12:12 PM
Buckshot Buckshot is offline
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Default Nice post, except....

In my experience, I have never, EVER, seen an online player fold a full house. Period. Even if the board was A33xA they call a raise, with 3 in their hand, on the river even when there are more than two players in the pot. Then they type "you suckout artist" or "I knew it, but had to see it". It certainly boggles the mind.

~stephen
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  #9  
Old 06-11-2003, 12:20 PM
Lee Jones Lee Jones is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

Clarkmeister is correct that if you're holding back information we can't glean from the hand, then we can't say anything relevant

"Doc, I hurt."
"Where?"
"You're the professional - you tell me."

Absent any other information, I'd call almost always. I can't imagine raising, because I think you're probably beaten as well. But you're going to put two BB's into a 14-BB pot. If UTG re-raises, and UTG+1 calls, you've got a tough decision, but it's probably a fold. If it comes back two more cold, I think you can fold with a clear conscience. But I have to think that your hand is good one of seven times.

Regards, Lee
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  #10  
Old 06-11-2003, 01:24 PM
elysium elysium is offline
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Default Re: Could you fold FH on the river?

hi lee and clark
actually lee, i think, not completely sure here though, but i think that there is ample info provided in pilchard's post. i am fairly certain that pilchard is in the lead here.

notice the turn. neither opponent, who pilchard rates as reasonable to very good, has any reason to believe that if they check, someone will bet. also notice that any bettor holding anything on the turn has a protected bet, while the absolute nuts has a very likely call and over-call. but, there is no hand that could risk a check-down unless it was the absolute nuts. but the absolute wouldn't do that; the absolute knows his bet will be called. could they be check-raising to the button, the only flop strength? and give him a free-card?, no way. if anything pilchard's raise on the flop would inspire betting by any betting hand.

the fourth diamond has frightened the UTG and UTG+1, unless the AJ or J9 just scored a straight flush. but because that card likely gave someone else a flush, only J9s would consider the slow-play check. but even J9s would never check if checked to on the turn. so that means that if J9s is out there, the UTG would have to have it. would the UTG limp in with J9s? lee, clark.....possibly. but both of you would agree that in this position in this type of game, that player would muck J9s about half the time. the odds of J9s being precisely in the UTG hand is about 30 or 40 to 1, but possible.

would he likely bet or check from UTG on that board that likely hit someone? he would likely bet. AJs would certainly bet to get called by the J hi on both the turn and river. he would also bet, as would the J9s, to get the bets in from sets and two pair trying to draw out. and of course, we come back to the biggest reason a strong hand would bet on the turn; the flop didn't produce a likely bettor, especially since the button's raise was only called and that the button could likely be raising for a free-card.

simple hand analysis tells us that almost unquestionably pilchard has a raise for value here and is clearly the favorite. can the J9s long, long shot be lurking in the check weeds? no! pilchard must raise for value. J9s is a figment of the imagination.


and clark i want to add that i always apply your fundemental theorem to every read; the clarkmeister's 'you would have heard from it by now!'. it has really helped me tremendously. i wish you and dynasty would get into it again like you used to do in the old days. a lot insight is introduced through your excoriations clark.
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