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Old 12-12-2005, 02:00 PM
Exsubmariner Exsubmariner is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Now Declassified
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Default God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

I am writing here prompted by two things. The first of which were my obviously scandelous questions about the grim meat hook realities of internet tournament poker, especially large fields. And secondly because the 1-Table Tournaments forum addresses these questions in their FAQ and this forum does not.

We learn in the SNG FAQ's that the best you can expect to do on the long haul is about 40% ITM and a return of 15%-20% depending on if you have 9 or 10 players.

So let's imagine that you are God's gift to large field internet tournaments.

-What can you expect to be your ITM%?
-What can you expect to be your ROI?
-What percentage of time would you expect to make the final table?
-What percentage of time would you expect to win?

I have done some research on this in the past and the best I can come up with is that in moderately sized Internet tournaments the ITM of a good poker player is expected to be in the 5% range. I cannot remember exactly about the ROI%.

However, to my knowledge, and it could just be because I am a noob in these parts, there is no real math out there about fields of 3000-7000 players.

This would also be handy to know if you wanted to ever say, one day, play the WSOP. It's true that Raymer is a good player. He has proven that on the poker circuit, IMO and that he deserved to win his title and get a high placing the next year. But even being such a superb player, is it possible that he was just exceptionally lucky as well in the face of such hordes?

This should be on the minds of a lot of posters out there. I think it needs to be discussed by the finest 2+2 can offer. There are who knows how many serious poker players out there willing to plunk down $215 every week in the Stars 500K guarantee and while this is not a lot of money nor is it a significant portion of any serious players roll, it does add up. Imagine 100 weeks of never making it ITM. Thats $21,500. Imagine 300 weeks.

That's enough for a down payment on a pretty nice house in some parts of the country. It's significant. I'm not trying to encourage or discourage anyone in any way here. I just want a discussion about what we really are getting ourselves into when we enter one of these type events.

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