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Old 12-04-2005, 12:50 PM
Dazarath Dazarath is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 185
Default Preflop question - AQo

In HEFAP, Sklansky advocates not raising hands like AQo/AJo
after a few limpers, instead, calling to see a flop and then playing once you have a made hand. On the 2+2 forums, the accepted philosophy is to pump equity edges anytime you have one, foregoing some of the potential to force opponents into postflop mistakes.

I decided to play around a little with PokerStove and here are some numbers I got:
(Green means that AQo has an equity edge, whereas red means the hand does not.)
- I define playable (loose) hands as:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 3s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
- I define playable (tight) hands as:
22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
- I define playing (non-raising) hands as:
99-22,A9s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,KT o+,QTo+,JTo
- PokerStove defines the top 30% of hands as:
55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,A5o,K9o+,Q9o +,J9o+,T9o

AQo vs 9 random hands - <font color="green">15.4%</font>
AQo vs 9 playable (loose) hands - <font color="red">7.8%</font>
AQo vs 5 playable (loose) hands - <font color="green">17.1%</font>
AQo vs 3 playable (loose) hands - <font color="green">28.8%</font>
AQo vs 5 playable (tight) hands - <font color="red">16.0%</font>
AQo vs 3 playable (tight) hands - <font color="green">27.0%</font>
AQo vs 9 playable (non-raising) hands - <font color="black">10.0%</font>
AQo vs 5 playable (non-raising) hands - <font color="green">20.5%</font>
AQo vs 3 playable (non-raising) hands - <font color="green">31.7%</font>
AQo vs 9 hands from the top 30% - <font color="red">8.2%</font>
AQo vs 5 hands from the top 30% - <font color="green">18.3%</font>
AQo vs 3 hands from the top 30% - <font color="green">30.2%</font>

I picked AQo as a hand, because I find it to be a marginal hand that 2+2ers advocate raising after many limpers. As for the hand ranges, I picked the playable (loose) range, just judging by the average casino goer who's not a complete donk. I would say most of these players are too loose, but they usually don't showdown 83o at the end. I picked playable (tight) and playable (non-raising) just based on my judgment. I used a tighter range for a situation where you're raising AQo after players who have a tighter range. Lastly, I used a sort of "non-raising" range, because chances are if you're raising a field of limpers with AQo, they aren't holding hands like AA or AK.

I won't get into details for every test, but basically, if your opponents have any half-decent idea of hand selection, AQo's equity decreases drastically as the number of opponents increases.

Just a couple notes:
1) I know PokerStove analysis doesn't tell us everything. I does do well as a base point or an estimate. The final decision should be made using one's own judgment, of course.
2) The numbers probably have an error of +/- 0.2%, because I didn't feel like running the trials for half an hour each.
3) The hand ranges are not always correct. This should be obvious. Again, this is just to get a feel for the numbers, not an end-all solution.

Because the rake takes out a portion of the pot, your edge needs to be greater than 1/(number of players) * 100% + x%. I'm not sure what this x% is, but I wouldn't advocate pumping the pot preflop when you feel you have a 0.1% equity edge, as there's no gain. Plus, the potential postflop edge is worth so much more at that point. I'm wondering what this x% is.

The point of this thread was basically to discuss the idea of raising hands after multiple limpers, and where the cutoffs should be. I've seen a thread where someone advocated raising AQo in the BB after the whole table limps. I won't say that it's wrong or right, but it seems to be that if your opponents don't all have 50+% VPIP, you're pushing a small (more likely negative edge) and you're giving up the potential to make chasers screw up later.
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