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  #1  
Old 06-14-2005, 12:44 PM
imported_bingobazza imported_bingobazza is offline
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Default Peak oil

Since the industrial revolution, oil has been the driver of global increases in GDP. When it runs out, maybe as soon as in 20 years, or becomes too expensive, we will lose all the GDP growth and perhaps revert to a largely agrarian existence without high petroleum based crop yeilds (if we survive the commodity wars) until a suitable replacement for oil is found. What do you think society be like after the oil age has finished?

Bingo.
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  #2  
Old 06-14-2005, 01:21 PM
Sniper Sniper is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

There is plenty of oil left to last our lifetimes, and by the time the earth runs dry there will be alternatives to take its place.

Don't pay any attention to the doomsday predictions related to oil.
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  #3  
Old 06-14-2005, 02:14 PM
James Boston James Boston is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

My simple theory is this:

There is PLENTY of oil still available. Once we hit the top of the bell curve, we will see prices begin to rise. But, there is a point where the public will react. Gas prices have been rising, and people have been complaining, but have you really seen that many hybrid cars on the roads? No. Gas is just expensive enough for us to complain, but not to react to. If it went to say, $10 a gallon, beleive me...you'd see a change. The big oil companies (which are in the oil business because it's the most profitable) will eventually have to do something to keep the money coming in. The world won't continue to buy conventional fuels regardless of price.
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Old 06-14-2005, 02:46 PM
parttimepro parttimepro is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

We're not going to run out of oil in the next 100 years. We may exhaust easily extracted sources so that the price increases somewhat. But there is an enormous amount of hydrocarbons which are not currently economical to tap. The tar sands of Canada, for example, contain more oil than Saudi Arabia. Similar deposits exist in the Rockies in the US. They aren't being actively exploited (other than a few pilot projects) because of the higher expense of separating oil from earth (as well as the enormous environmental consequences of strip mining huge areas). If oil hits $100 a barrel, these new supplies will open up.

Also, a higher cost of energy will make it much more important to develop alternatives. We'll use more alternative sources like biodiesel, wind/solar/hydro, spend a lot more research nuclear fusion, and possibly build new fission power plants.

At absolute worst, we'll have a severe recession caused by higher energy prices, like the mid-70's, but worse. Sorry, but we're not reverting to an agrarian society.
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  #5  
Old 06-14-2005, 02:48 PM
RYL RYL is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
My simple theory is this:

There is PLENTY of oil still available. Once we hit the top of the bell curve, we will see prices begin to rise. But, there is a point where the public will react. Gas prices have been rising, and people have been complaining, but have you really seen that many hybrid cars on the roads? No. Gas is just expensive enough for us to complain, but not to react to. If it went to say, $10 a gallon, beleive me...you'd see a change. The big oil companies (which are in the oil business because it's the most profitable) will eventually have to do something to keep the money coming in. The world won't continue to buy conventional fuels regardless of price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point.
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  #6  
Old 06-14-2005, 04:08 PM
imported_bingobazza imported_bingobazza is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
Once we hit the top of the bell curve, we will see prices begin to rise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, we have already seen 500% rises. Huberts curve has been very accurate so far. Are we at the top yet? Goldman Sachs recently issued a trading udate with a price target of $105/barrell...a 'super spike'. A french analyst said $380/barrell within 10 years.

The oil companies have vastly scaled back exploration, restated reserves downwards, and diversified into solar energy, (BP is the second biggest in the world) and the US hasnt built a new refinery in 3 decades. The tar sands in Canada arent economcally viable...or they would have been tapped by now. There will be no additional capacity brought online if it costs more energy to take it from the ground than it produces. The saudis cannot stop the price increases (and are large users of solar energy). If it took the world 150 years to use the first half of global oil reserves, how long will the second half last at present consumption (and hoarding) rates?

Dont kid yourself that all is well. There is nothing that can replace the scale and economy of oil when it runs out. Thinking there is 100 years left, or there is a super technology waiting in the wings would be a dream...and is.

Bingo
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  #7  
Old 06-14-2005, 05:11 PM
laserboy laserboy is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
We're not going to run out of oil in the next 100 years. We may exhaust easily extracted sources so that the price increases somewhat. But there is an enormous amount of hydrocarbons which are not currently economical to tap. The tar sands of Canada, for example, contain more oil than Saudi Arabia. Similar deposits exist in the Rockies in the US. They aren't being actively exploited (other than a few pilot projects) because of the higher expense of separating oil from earth (as well as the enormous environmental consequences of strip mining huge areas). If oil hits $100 a barrel, these new supplies will open up.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with tar sands and shale is that they require an enormous amount of energy to extract. For each unit of energy you are extracting, you are using up 70% of that energy in the process of extracting it. Not to mention the fact that you are burning up natural gas reserves which are also in short supply. Neither of these really solves the problem of the end of cheap oil.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, a higher cost of energy will make it much more important to develop alternatives. We'll use more alternative sources like biodiesel, wind/solar/hydro, spend a lot more research nuclear fusion, and possibly build new fission power plants.

At absolute worst, we'll have a severe recession caused by higher energy prices, like the mid-70's, but worse. Sorry, but we're not reverting to an agrarian society.

[/ QUOTE ]

A transition from a hydrocarbon based economy to some alternative energy source would mean trillions of dollars in research, development, and infrastructure and would have a significant impact on the way we live. It will, in my opinion, be the most important economic event of the next century.
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  #8  
Old 06-14-2005, 05:25 PM
laserboy laserboy is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
There is plenty of oil left to last our lifetimes, and by the time the earth runs dry there will be alternatives to take its place.


[/ QUOTE ]

Peak oil is not the point at which the earth runs dry, only the point at which worldwide oil production has peaked. The world will never run out of oil, but it will one day run out of cheap oil.

Consider that there has been exactly one major oil discovery over the past thirty years. North Sea production has already peaked. This would seem to indicate that most of the world's cheap oil has already been found.
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  #9  
Old 06-14-2005, 06:30 PM
James Boston James Boston is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
There is nothing that can replace the scale and economy of oil when it runs out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even Peak Oil fear mongers don't claim we're running out, just that it's about to get so expensive that it will turn the economy upside down. Saudi Arabia, the country who far and away profits the most from oil, doesn't come close to the profits ExxonMobile or Chevron see. Businesses that make that much money have no desire to drive away their entire market by demanding that it pay whatever price they set. Oil companies make oil expensive, IMO, not out absolute dependance on it. A recession in our future? Probably. Mad Max? Nah.
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  #10  
Old 06-14-2005, 07:17 PM
imported_bingobazza imported_bingobazza is offline
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Default Re: Peak oil

[ QUOTE ]
Businesses that make that much money have no desire to drive away their entire market by demanding that it pay whatever price they set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my point is that their customers have no real choice. If they could set the price, they could just forget oil and make billions in the futures markets. The market sets the price, and while producers have been able to manipulate it in the past, their ability to do so must now be questioned since production is very close to peak to meet demand. And if you have a finite amount of any commodity left, wouldnt you be happy as the price eases higher?

Running out is a bad turn of phrase, depleting economically accessible fields would be more accurate. But the end result is the same.


Bingo
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