Pocket Queens - spewing like a mofo??

[celiboy]

Hero has QQ UTG+1. I have zero hands on villain, but he did sit down with 10 BB's at the table which usually indicates fish city.

.5/1 9 handed..........

UTG BETS, Hero RAISES, folds to cut off, cut off 3 BETS, UTG folds, Hero CAPS

Flop
A/7/3 rainbow

Hero bets, Villain calls

Turn
2

Hero checks, villain bets, Hero calls

River
9

Hero checks, villain bets, Hero calls

The flop call confused me. If he had AA,AK you would expect a flop raise. I put him on KK here and I think I need to fold after villain's turn bet.

[ackid]

looks like AK or KK to me. The only hand you could beat is JJ/TT. I think a C/F on the turn is fine. Its heads up and there is not that much in the pot.

[Aaron W.]

I'd rather bet-fold the turn and river than check-call. I think I'd also rather bet-fold the turn and river than check-fold the turn. Why can't he have JJ or TT here, or be a total donk?

Since you took a shot on the flop and he flat called I sometimes try a turn bet if he's capable of folding KK. I don't see why we have to rule out TT/JJ here but I don't think they're as likely.

[Jaran]

I think I bet/fold the turn. Tough against an unknown.

-Jaran

[adsman]

I bet that turn every time. I don't understand how you're putting him on exactly KK? There quite a few hands that he could have here.

[macdaddy991]

I like the bet/fold the turn line. C/C is poor since you lose fold equity. If villan only calls the turn, I take this hand to showdown. I think that there are a lot of hands that villan may have. You beat many of them.

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
macdaddy991
Pirate of the Caribbean

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice title. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

And bet/fold the turn looks like the best line to me too. But you're definitely not spewin' like a mofo. I expected a lot more fireworks!

what is it, QQ win ~35% overall, and almost 80% HU? here, come the flop, you're either WA or WB, true, but statistically you're anywhere from 2 to 1 to win, to 1 to 8 to win, and getting 4.25 to 1. this is a BIG overlay. you have to stay in the pot.

a lot of times guys bet according to formula: theyre in the BB, SB, CO, and they raise because they've heard they "should": they have a medium pair, and raise because it's a "value play". a lot of guys will bet an uncoordinated board like this, with an A showing, or a K, to scare other players into giving them a free card, or enable them to bluff the river. the point is, with this guy, you have no reads. when he calls your flop, he may be slowplaying, with the intention to raise your turn or river; he may be thinking you have anything from KK to KJs; or he may be playing tentatively because he's as ignorant of you as you are of him.

what you do know, is that you're getting strong odds to play your QQ, 5.25 to 1 on the turn, and 7.25 to 1 on the river.

i think you played it right. you yielded the lead and trailed his play, preserving capital. you might have gotten tricky on the flop, check raising or something, but that would have more than likely cost you money: he calls or raises you, and you're still uncertain of his holdings.

basically, this is what poker is, walzing in the dark with a partner that may be just as likely toad as beauty queen.

you pays your money and you takes your shot.