Boston +300 to Win AL East

[DougOzzzz]

Last year Boston's Pythagenport record was 8 games better than the Yankees. Pythagenport record = runs scored^1.87/runs allowed^1.87.

Teams that outperform their pythagenport projections tend to come back to earth the following year. The Yankees added 1 great pitcher, and 2 mediocre, overrated ones. The Sox added 3 solid pitchers and a pretty good shortstop... losing 1 great pitcher and 1 terrible pitcher (at least last year).

PECOTA projects the Sox to win the AL East by 4 games. The Yankees are nonetheless a HUGE favorite to win according to the bookies. Looks like a lot of value in betting the Sox.

[Losing all]

Nice analysis. I put a few bucks on Bos at +300 myself, I bet there's better prices out there though. What do you think the real number should be? I'll pull +250 out of my ass. I would say +210-230 but the boss is more likely to add yet another big name or 2 as the season wears on.

Shopping is real key on these futures. 5dimes has some nice deals. I locked up Minn AL central at even money there (down to -120 now). What do you think of that one? I don't believe the cle or det hype, and Chicago looks weaker to me.

[bugstud]

question is: red sox rotation & health

I do agree the that sox here are pretty damn good value, but locking up money for the season sucks

[DougOzzzz]

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Nice analysis. I put a few bucks on Bos at +300 myself, I bet there's better prices out there though. What do you think the real number should be? I'll pull +250 out of my ass. I would say +210-230 but the boss is more likely to add yet another big name or 2 as the season wears on.

Shopping is real key on these futures. 5dimes has some nice deals. I locked up Minn AL central at even money there (down to -120 now). What do you think of that one? I don't believe the cle or det hype, and Chicago looks weaker to me.

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Minnesota at even money is a decent bet. The AL Central is very difficult to predict though. Literally any team can win it. Minnesota is the favorite, but Cleveland is a close 2nd.

I think Oakland to win the west at +537 is a great bet though. Most people are greatly overestimating the importance of their losses in the off season. The Angels are also very overrated. Oakland has alot of depth, which protects them against injuries.

I agree that even though PECOTA projects the Sox to win the division that you need significantly better than even money to bet on them. I would say +160 would be my break even point. If the Sox are ahead in mid to late season, no question Steinbrenner will make several moves to win the division.

[DougOzzzz]

The Sox rotation should be better than last year's. They took some gambles in the off season, but odds are some of them will pay off. Wade Miller at 1.5 mil was a steal.

Injuries are always a concern. They could be a major problem for the Yankees too, though. They've got 5 "red lights" and 6 "yellow lights" in their starting lineup (9 positions players, 5 starters + closer). They're an old team that is very weak up the middle. Beltran would have made a huge difference for the Yanks, replacing Williams in center field.

[$DEADSEXE$]

A don't know if your up to date on current events but Boston's rotation isn't better than last year. First off they lost Lowe who eats up innings, they lost Pedro, They added Wade Miller who even Bos admits there is virtually no way he plays till at the earliest..after the All Star Break...Schilling is out at least the first 2-3 weeks if not more. Wells will steady barring his back acting up and Clement the headcase will be great one start and shitty the next.
Boston won't even finish close to the Yankees for first place.
This is a suckers bet...its just high enough for everyone to think..you know what..this is the year they'll finally beat the yankees and take the division.
Ask any sports anylyst worth their salt and they'll laugh at that notion.
Now in a seven game series this would be a great bet...but to win the division hell no...+500 or higher and you'de still probally lose.

[DougOzzzz]

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A don't know if your up to date on current events but Boston's rotation isn't better than last year. First off they lost Lowe who eats up innings, they lost Pedro, They added Wade Miller who even Bos admits there is virtually no way he plays till at the earliest..after the All Star Break...Schilling is out at least the first 2-3 weeks if not more. Wells will steady barring his back acting up and Clement the headcase will be great one start and shitty the next.
Boston won't even finish close to the Yankees for first place.
This is a suckers bet...its just high enough for everyone to think..you know what..this is the year they'll finally beat the yankees and take the division.
Ask any sports anylyst worth their salt and they'll laugh at that notion.
Now in a seven game series this would be a great bet...but to win the division hell no...+500 or higher and you'de still probally lose.

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Derek Lowe was one of the worst 5 starters in the whole league last year. I'm not saying he's likely to repeat that performance - his Opponent's BABIP (Batting average for balls in play) was extremely high. This stat is mostly luck, with very little correlation from year to year. Nevertheless, the Sox will have an easy time replacing the combination of Pedro 2004 and Lowe 2004. Two league average starters would do the trick - the Sox got 1 above average starter (Clement), 1 average starter (Wells), and 1 above average starter who likely will miss much of the season (Miller).

The Yanks were extremely lucky last year. Winning 12 more games than your Pythagenport projection is rare - it only happens about once every 15 years. Rivera might be worth an extra 1 or 2 "clutch" wins. He's not worth 12. (For BP suscribers, this is a Nate Silver quote, who also frequents this site).

If you're willing to give me +500 on this I'd be glad to take your offer.

I'm not saying the Sox will win the division. I'm simply stating that they're a MUCH better than 3-1 underdog to win. And it's idiots like you who create these sort of +EV situations in sports betting.

[mrbaseball]

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The Yankees added 1 great pitcher, and 2 mediocre, overrated ones. The Sox added 3 solid pitchers

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Johnson, Pavano, Wright vs. Wells, Miller, Clement? Hmmm? Your comment reeks of Bosox fandom to me. I assume you consider Pavano and Wright the mediocre overrateds? I think I like either of them more than Wells, Miller or Clement but maybe thats just me? I do think Clement is ready to bust out big but switching leagues to AL (as all of these guys are doing) is usually at least a minor roadblock. Miller just doesn't impress me and I'm real surprised Wells isn't already done.

Good luck on your bet though I only bet real longshots in the futures market. Too much time to tie up cash for a measly +300 bet.

[mrbaseball]

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I locked up Minn AL central at even money there (down to -120 now). What do you think of that one?

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Yuck! Locking up money long term on something like this kinda sucks in my mind. Plus Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland are all improved and I'm not so sure Minnesota has improved. I see this division as a real dogfight with anyone but KC having a very legitimate shot.

[DougOzzzz]

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The Yankees added 1 great pitcher, and 2 mediocre, overrated ones. The Sox added 3 solid pitchers

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Johnson, Pavano, Wright vs. Wells, Miller, Clement? Hmmm? Your comment reeks of Bosox fandom to me. I assume you consider Pavano and Wright the mediocre overrateds? I think I like either of them more than Wells, Miller or Clement but maybe thats just me? I do think Clement is ready to bust out big but switching leagues to AL (as all of these guys are doing) is usually at least a minor roadblock. Miller just doesn't impress me and I'm real surprised Wells isn't already done.

Good luck on your bet though I only bet real longshots in the futures market. Too much time to tie up cash for a measly +300 bet.

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Yeah... it's actually fairly even here. But most people would give the Yankees a huge edge. Johnson of course is the best of the bunch, but Pavano is hugely overrated. His peripherals were poor last year, and he's only had one good season. He is projected to have around a 4.70 ERA. PECOTA doesn't expect much from Wells either, but Clement is likely to do much better than Pavano. Wright is a big question mark. He could go either way - but the Yankees are paying him like he's a sure thing.

Once again, I'm not saying the Sox are better than the Yanks. But they WERE better last year, despite losing the division. The Yankees winter signings have been greatly publicized and generally overrated. They've won the division 7 years in a row. This is causing most people to believe they are a sure thing to win the division, when in reality they have about the same chance as the Red Sox.