Hand vs Carlos Mortensen in Bellagio 3K

[KneeCo]

Note that whatever I know on C.M. is from TV and hearsay (in other words, I know nothing).

You lead out at the monochrome A high flop flop, 4 handed and out of position, bottom pair with no flush draw doesn't exactly jump to mind as your holding at this point.

Then on the turn you bet only 1/3rd of the pot (as opposed to half the pot on the flop).

Add these things together, and IMO, Mortensen's must assume at this point that you hated that turn card, and thus greatly increases the chances that he is making a play for the pot here with air or with an A that he is now more confident in.

I seriously doubt he made a boat on the turn, as he would probably give you the chance to improve on the river and pay him off.

I probably call.

[ActionJeff]

what would you do if you were Carlos here and had a baby flush and was facing that turn three bet? We can agree a full boat and a big flush jams the pot right? What about a medium flush, like Q high? It seems like Shaniac's three bet is almost like a confused semi bluff. If I were Carlos I would expect to either be way ahead or be crushed if the money goes in unless I have a full house or maybe the nut flush. IMO, the idea of Carlos having an Ace here when he shoves is pretty ridiculous lol.

I have no credentials to offer any input, but thank you for posting this. Very interesting hand indeed.

what happened?

[IgorSmiles]

The mini raise just reeks of strength to me. No?

[ QUOTE ]


Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.



[/ QUOTE ]

This part of the hand is interesting.

You called his bet. Three spades flop including the Ace. You bet, but Carlos doesn't raise you back, he calls. IMO he's sitting there w/ 3 7s, but still can't feel strong. So the call makes sense. The the board pairs on the turn, and now he can take you to school.

I still say he has 77 in the hole.

[locutus2002]

I think Carlos has the flush to miniraise and push the turn.

Hero's most likely holding is a 2, of the 100 hands with a 2, 12 are full houses, and the other 90 have 9 outs. A few of them might have flush outs that are clean. I think Carlos betting makes sense for a medium flush. I suppose he could play a FH this fast, but 77,AA,a2s are much less likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if he got a read off you when he miniraised.

I don't like the flop bet because 2pr or a set of 2 is not likely to win a big pot on this board, but likely to lose a big one.
Same thing for the turn bet/raise.

[Jason Strasser]

Shaniac this hand is disgusting.

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 25/50. I have 5900 carlos has 4900 and he raises to 125 in 3rd position and gets 3 callers. I have 2 cards (62o) in the BB and call. Flop is A72 all spades and I bet 250 for whatever reason. Carlos calls and everyone else folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your lead is really puzzling. Even more puzzling is your justification for it. There are good reasons to lead here, but I would lead for more, and I would also have a reason.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand and fire out 550. Carlos eyes me suspiciously and makes the minimum raise to 1100. I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out. I make it 1800 to go, 1250 more to Carlos. Now Carlos pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus christ. You lead for like 1/3-1/4 the pot. So he's already getting immediate odds to draw to a spade, which shows that your logic to 'protect your hand' is so flawed. If you wanted to protect your hand you wouldnt offer a spade draw pretty damn close to immediate odds, woudl you?

He min raises you. At this point, the idea you are 'protecting' your hand is completely dumb because the bottom line is the cost of 'protecting' your hand here is your stack because any raise is going to commit you to the pot & u will likely have the odds to draw to a boat if he puts in a turn reraise. Additionally, you arent maximizing your value versus hands that can pay you off. Carlos may have a weird combo draw or a bluff, but reraising here all but limits him to having better hands (for the most part). Maybe you will see some weird A(Ks) type of hand if you get it all in on the turn, but good luck to you with that.

It's nice to protect a made hand, but get your priorities straight. It's way more important to get value out of your hands. Plus realize that when he makes this turn raise, a large chunk of the time you are drawing, and a smaller chunk of the time you might be drawing to 1 out. He's offering you immediate odds to fill up, which is a +EV situation... If you are ahead you are risking a spade losing you the pot... but if you are behind you are being offered a great spot with his turn minraise!

It sounds like this great player is inside your head and you arent thinking straight. Or maybe you just need to start putting together more solid thought processes than:

"I bet 250 for whatever reason"

"Turn is another deuce and now I actually like my hand "

" I consider keeping the pot as small as possible and then decide I oughtn't give him a free out"

-Jason

[ActionJeff]

What if it turns out that Carlos had a baby flush, and shoved vs the turn three bet after the board paired? How would it change you guys' perception of the hand then?

one shouldn't be results oriented... instead of looking at results you should put him on a range of hands and re-evaluate after each decision. After reraising I think you should call. I probably would have called the min raise and led the river if a non scare card came, basically what a lot of others have said