Deep in a Party $109, blind defense vs big stack?

im very surprised he called with AJ, given your image. i would fold AJ, in his shoes. Conversely, if your called here, you know youre beat. If you're ready to play a big pot, then play it. I think I mightve called here and then pushed any flop without two face cards. If an A comes, its def. going in, and then im beat. People seem to be stubborn preflop, and ive gotten away with stealing more than i thought after the flop.

[Pat Southern]

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76s will perform better against his calling range.


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No it won't.

Why do so many people think that suited connectors do so wonderful against calling ranges. ATs is definitely a better hand to do this with.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

575,334,144 games 1.218 secs 472,359,724 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.5807 % 67.37% 00.21% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 32.4193 % 32.21% 00.21% { 76s }


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452,048,256 games 0.954 secs 473,845,132 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.0590 % 66.33% 01.73% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 31.9410 % 30.21% 01.73% { ATs }


Take out AJ, or throw in some more PP and ATs will do better.

[Mez]

You could stop n go here, but if the BB calls, you're a really bad position. I like a push here, especially if he's been pretty active.

[adanthar]

Was 2K his typical raise size at 300/600?

If it wasn't, I would give him the benefit of the doubt that time and fold. If it was, I think the push is decent to standard, but I'd personally be calling and betting most flops.

[reecelights]

For a stop and go you need your opponent to be pot committed or nearly pot committed in that you are close to certain he would call your preflop raise. I think if he is stealing with less than what he had, there is a better chance that he folds preflop than calls, and with the OP's image, a good chance he even folds AJ. The idea of a Stop and Go is to give a person a second chance to back out of a hand if he misses or feels he is beat, and deny him a turn and river card. It is the converse of why you want to get your money all-in preflop with AK: so you can see all 5 cards.

Also, I believe you usually want a better hand here than AT to Stop and Go: if you hold 66-99 vs probable AK or AQ or if you hold AK, AQ vs a probable middle pair. Withe the frequency of Villian's steals here the is no reason to give him credit for that narrow a range.

I like the push.

[HoldingFolding]

I feel your pain. I've been on 2 109 FTs in the past week and went out of both in an identical fashion:

H1: Big stack in SB has been consistently stealing from me in the BB. He makes a standard 2BB raise, I look down at A7s and push. He calls with 88; and what really riled me was he didn't even think about it - he instacalled [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

H2: Big stack in CO raises, I push with AT, he calls with AK.

I think a lot depends on the texture of your table, but these two hands have certainly reenforced a number of fundamental aspects of MTTs:
1. Avoid the big stacks
2. Pick on the medium stacks and be the first in aggressor

I think this type of reraise does work, but you really have to make sure you pick on a big stack that is abusing his position i.e. raising 2 or more times an orbit.

[ansky451]

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76s will perform better against his calling range.


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No it won't.

Why do so many people think that suited connectors do so wonderful against calling ranges. ATs is definitely a better hand to do this with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

575,334,144 games 1.218 secs 472,359,724 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.5807 % 67.37% 00.21% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 32.4193 % 32.21% 00.21% { 76s }


---

452,048,256 games 0.954 secs 473,845,132 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.0590 % 66.33% 01.73% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 31.9410 % 30.21% 01.73% { ATs }


Take out AJ, or throw in some more PP and ATs will do better.

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Billjex said AQ+ 99+. That put ATs higher than 67s.

Also, I'd have insta called w/ AJs, I don't know why everyone is whining about this guy calling with what is usually the best hand.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
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76s will perform better against his calling range.


[/ QUOTE ]


No it won't.

Why do so many people think that suited connectors do so wonderful against calling ranges. ATs is definitely a better hand to do this with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

575,334,144 games 1.218 secs 472,359,724 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.5807 % 67.37% 00.21% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 32.4193 % 32.21% 00.21% { 76s }


---

452,048,256 games 0.954 secs 473,845,132 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.0590 % 66.33% 01.73% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 31.9410 % 30.21% 01.73% { ATs }


Take out AJ, or throw in some more PP and ATs will do better.

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Billjex said AQ+ 99+. That put ATs higher than 67s.

Also, I'd have insta called w/ AJs, I don't know why everyone is whining about this guy calling with what is usually the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably not really stealing here w/ 76s. ATs is the worst hand I would pull this with w/ my chip stack and perceived skill over the rest of the field.

[A_PLUS]

I think you are too deep for this push.

76s is only better than ATs against a very very specific range (i.e. TT+, AJ+), and even then it is close.

with over 20xBB, and no antes, I think the scale shifts more to the negative implied odds of this hand being too large too push, and you arent really getting great pot odds to call this OOP.

I'm sure there is a right way to play this hand. I dont think pushing is the way too go. I think a call is borderline, and given the fact that survival has pretty significant value here, I will chose..fold!

Getting to <15 players at a party MTT with stacks this deep, I am leaning towards going into more of a SNG mode unless I see a situation to exploit. I think you are giving up a lot of $$ by not tightening up here, and using some well timed open-pushing at the final table.

In my view play usually tightens up pre final table, then loosens again until 7 or less remain. I am only planning to play premium-hands and blind steals unless someone gets really out of line. No need to take huge risks here. Doubling your chips gains you a lot less than double your equity here IMO.

[Pat Southern]

What about calling and leading any flop for 2.5k? If you dont connect and villain comes over the top you can be pretty sure you're beat, it allows you to resteal without risking your entire stack.